BTC Must Break This Key Level To Confirm A Real Rally

Bitcoin is still stuck in a broad correction structure, but the price action is starting to stabilize after defending the $60,000 demand region. The daily chart is still cautiously optimistic as BTC trades below the major moving averages and below the descending resistance line.

That leaves the cryptocurrency at an important crossroads, where higher upside can extend the recovery to higher supply, while failure will keep the broader decline strong.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart

In the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is still trading within a well-defined bearish structure, and the price is positioned below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 100-day MA is now trending slightly closer to the mid-$80,000s, while the 200-day MA is sitting very high in the mid-$90,000s, indicating that the broader trend remains under pressure.

In addition, BTC is still moving below the descending line that has been targeting a correction for months, which means that buyers have not yet received a satisfactory reversal of the structure.

That said, the reaction from the blue support area around $60,000 was technically significant. Buyers intervened heavily after a sharp move below $60,000, and BTC has rebounded towards the $68,000 area. The first major resistance remains around $76,000 to $80,000, where previous horizontal support has turned into supply. As long as Bitcoin stays below that region, rebounds may be viewed as corrections.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is consolidating within an ascending channel, suggesting that the recent decline is a recovery phase rather than a full bullish reversal. The stock is currently hovering around $68,000 after declining from the upper boundary of the channel near the $72,000 to $75,000 resistance area. This rejection confirms that traders are still working in circles, especially when BTC approaches the confluence resistance, where the top of the channel overlaps with the horizontal supply.

Momentum has also cooled significantly. The RSI pushed into overbought territory during the recent rally, but has since rolled back towards neutral, indicating the upside potential is ending in the short term.

For buyers, holding above the mid-channel area and continuing to defend the $64,000 to $65,000 region will keep the structure forming another top effort. On the other hand, a break below the lower boundary of the channel could bring Bitcoin back to the $60,000 support area and possibly even lower.

On-Chain Analysis

From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, has fallen significantly and now sits at around 0.20. That’s a big reset compared to the bullish readings seen during the rally toward the cycle high.

In simple terms, the market has given up a large part of the paper’s profits, which usually shows a large decrease in overestimates. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate trend reversal, it tends to create a healthier backdrop than the overheated conditions seen around major tops.

Historically, NUPL’s reading in this area points to a market that is no longer excited and is instead approaching a kind of sentiment reset that could support a medium-term fundamental structure. That fits well with the current price structure, where Bitcoin is trying to stabilize after a difficult correction rather than accelerating into a new expansion leg.

Therefore, the on-chain data suggests that the downside risk may be more limited than it is near the highs, but in a strong bullish situation, that improvement in the on-chain background still needs to be confirmed from the price by re-searching the upper resistance levels on both the daily and 4-hour charts.