The crypto market analyst explained what he described as a precise statistical method that helped pinpoint the bottom Previous Bitcoin bear market. Focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the bottom of 2022 is now shaping Bitcoin’s next big phase.
Simple Maths That Identified Bitcoin Price Bear Market Bottom
In a post X shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited the prediction he made in December 2022 about Bitcoin bear market down. Although he admitted that the call time was slightly reduced by a few months, he said that the target price appeared to be accurate.
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Reference analysis Bitcoin’s bear market down around the $15,000 region by late 2022, an analyst previously predicted using this framework. His approach is focused on macros Fibonacci extension levels plotted on a quarterly chart, with a particular focus on the 1.618 Fibonacci level placed near $62,084.
The accompanying chart highlights how Bitcoin has historically reacted to this large level. During the bull cycle of 2021, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and support price action aabove the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to candles for the second and fourth quarters of 2021, both of which declined in that area.
This was repeatedly rejected it showed strong resistance at that time, reinforcing the importance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these major levels across cycles, the analyst says long-term Fibonacci statistics can help. identify the two lowest and potential expansion targets.
Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase
The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with 1.618 The Fibonacci level has changed from resistance to support. After breaking the $62,084 region during the quarter, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle that closes below the level since the breakout.
The chart shows two notable retests after the move. In the second and third phases after that, Bitcoin briefly tested the level but was able to hold above it by closing. One quarter note even dipped below $50,000 before finding the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is also trading at more than same macro Fibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a quarterly reassessment.
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The projection drawn on the chart extends to the next Fibonacci retracement level at 2.618, which sits near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as a small target if the structure is holding. The chart also shows potential volatility, suggesting that price weeks could extend to the $500,000 region during the expansion phase.
However, the analyst notes that deep quarterly wicks are always possible depending on broader market conditions, including possible weakness in the altcoin market. Even with that caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a pattern of continuity focused on Bitcoin holding the Fibonacci level of 1.618.
The featured image was created with Dall.E, a chart from Tradingview.com
