Bitcoin is holding close to the upper $60Ks–$70K region despite the major shocks, showing relative resilience against equities and other risk assets.
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Bitcoin Is Sufficiently Strong
Bitcoin seems to have passed the first stress test of the Iran shock and its consequences. As we discussed yesterday, Bitcoin recovered more than $70,000 after the chaos of the Iran war subsided, oil retreated, and the stress on others began to cool, turning a brutal liquidation into a rapid relief rally.
Since then, BTC has pulled another wave of major negatives, briefly sliding below $63,000 at the latest risk before returning to the high‑$60,000s/low‑$70,000s range. QCP Capital’s March 11 “Market Color” note leans against that view, arguing that Bitcoin has shown “significant resilience following recent geopolitical shocks”.
A Matter of Caution
However, despite the recovery being encouraging, QCP’s Market Color note also suggests that price actions “look more like a stabilization than a full return to risk-taking”. This warning is reflected by the options markets. Implied volatility has cooled from the extreme rise after the last selloff and is now in the mid-50s, but the 25-delta risk reversal remains negative, indicating traders are still paying a premium for short-term downside puts against upside calls. Spot BTC is still holding up, but options desks are not yet convinced of a breakout; they still fence the other lower leg, in line with QCP’s view that reverse protection is still needed.
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The risk of “Stagflation” for Bitcoin
QCP’s reading of BTC’s recent activity represents a “stagflationary shock”. Stagflation is the worst possible mix for traders: growth is stagnant, inflation is still hot, and the Fed can’t easily save risky assets without risking more inflation.
As tensions flared in the Middle East and oil cracked the $120 mark, global markets were trading on a deflationary note: softer stocks, higher yields, and shocks to inflation driven by energy instead of growth. As we recently highlighted, senior analyst Alex Krüger says that the 2026 Iran-driven oil shock looks set to outpace the 2022 Russia shock, with futures prices still suggesting that markets expect supply chains to cool rather than an energy shortage that will force the Fed to increase shocks.
What Traders Should Look For
Amidst its “digital gold” narrative and its behavior as a large beta asset, bitcoin can’t amount to a clean safety win just yet. Instead, the tape and surface options send a very different message: the area is strong, but the big players still pay for low protection and treat every jump as a possibility if big data breaks the wrong way.
For traders, the setup is a binary around the incoming CPI and the energy tape. Inflation print benign inflation and calm oil can finally turn this from “stagflation scary” to “stagflation hope”. A hotter-than-expected CPI, in contrast, would confirm the narrative of stagflation, reward those who remain hedged, and reopen the door for a deeper test of the mid-$60,000s before any attempt at new highs.
BTC’s price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
