Arthur Hayes is still systematically active in Bitcoin. He doesn’t think now is the time to buy.
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast on March 10, the BitMEX founder and Maelstrom CIO said he would remain patient until the most familiar macro catalyst arrives: central bank money. According to Hayes, the protracted Iran war and the credit squeeze that may follow from AI-driven economic disruption may force the Federal Reserve to return to printing money, and that, rather than the conflict itself, is the sign it is waiting for.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I put it in Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said at the end of the interview. “I think the longer this conflict continues, the more likely it is that the Fed will have to print money to support the American military machine and that’s when I will buy Bitcoin when central banks start printing money.”
That distinction was central to the entire discussion. Hayes pushed back on the idea that the war is automatically bullish on Bitcoin, arguing that the real transmission mechanism is the expansion of liquidity. “When you say, ‘Okay, war is good for Bitcoin,’ what you really mean by war is printing money. Printing money is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “So wait to print the money. Don’t try to time it because you might get a mistake.”
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The argument is consistent with the broader framework that Hayes laid out throughout the discussion: Bitcoin is subject to pure trading rather than the alarm of “liquidity alarm,” which is already responding to tightening conditions, credit pressure and the lack of creation of new dollars. He tied that view to the rise of AI, which he said could accelerate job losses, squeeze private debt and bank exposure, and force markets to price in a sharper economic divergence than many currently expect.
“I think it’s going to happen faster than people think just because of the sheer nature of how fast AI is advancing,” Hayes said. “It only takes 10 to 20% [job displacement]. And then the power in the banking system will do the rest. Sometimes the market says, ‘Oh, this is zero.'”
In that case, he said, market recognition of the problem may come well before the full economic damage is reflected in the data. Regional banks, private debt and equity funds could also be aggressively priced, with deposit flight and emergency Fed funding following closely behind. It was then that Hayes realized that we were building more Bitcoin than the current background.
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However, his near-term warning did not extend to Bitcoin’s long-term role. Hayes described them as “structurally very long-term” and said the case for a fiat currency is stronger now than it was when Bitcoin was launched. He also warned against molding the industry to the liking of the establishment, saying that crypto should not reduce itself to a sophisticated version of traditional currencies.
“Bitcoin got from zero to any $66,000 or any price today without government support, unclear regulations, hostile banking infrastructure and regulators,” said Hayes. “So why do we bend over backwards to try to be accepted by these people who don’t have our best interest at heart?”
He similarly dismissed conspiracy-driven explanations for weak market performance, including allegations that market makers are deliberately depressing Bitcoin’s price. Often, he said, losses come down to bad setup, bad timing or the rate used by traders who aren’t equipped for crypto speed.
For investors frustrated that Bitcoin hasn’t delivered life-changing returns immediately, Hayes’ answer was unequivocal: adjust expectations. “The job of the market is not to make money for you. The job of the market is to take your money,” he said, arguing that long-term consolidation is still more important than trying to force a six-month windfall.
At press time, BTC traded at $69,538.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
