Bitcoin Eyes Gold’s Crown As Institutional Currency Is Quietly Changing
Wall Street’s largest gold fund has seen something unusual recently – a one-day outflow of $3 billion from SPDR Gold Shares, a number that dwarfed any comparable daily outflow over the past two years by more than 200%.
A one-day outflow of $3 billion from SPDR Gold Shares – an ETF backed by US gold under the ticker GLD – was flagged by Kobeissi Letter as exceeding any comparable daily outflow over the past two years by more than 200%.
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On the same side of the ledger, Bitcoin exchanges recorded more than $900 million in inflows in the 30 days ending March 11, up from close to $2 billion in outflows the previous month.
BREAKING: The largest US gold-backed ETF, $GLDposted record outflows of $3.0 billion on Wednesday.
This exceeds any previous daily large breakout seen in the last 2 years by +200%.
At the same time, silver ETFs recorded less outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs saw less inflows. pic.twitter.com/XF8y99cPSV
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 6, 2026
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The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has returned to a support zone near 12-13 – a level that prevented further gains in 2017, then changed to support in 2022 and 2023.
Analysts say history gives the current price level more weight. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, points to a bullish divergence forming between the average and the relative strength index on the daily chart.
In plain terms, that means selling pressure appears to be easing as prices remain under pressure. Whether that signal holds is another matter, but it has caught the attention of traders following Bitcoin’s long-term position against gold.
#Bitcoin vs. Gold is currently breaking higher after a bullish breakout was confirmed.
This should indicate that we are about to see more strength in Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/vwIpwJ82qz
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 11, 2026
The shift in ETF allocations reinforces the picture. The Bitcoin ETF balance increased by approximately 12,900 BTC in the last monthly period, while the ETF’s gold holdings decreased by approximately 800,000 ounces during the same period. The bull seems to be moving, or moving slowly.
Centers Are Coming, They Are Not Full Yet
Binance Research has flagged the current market volatility as what it calls an “opportunity within a risk” for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has traded in line with oil and US equities recently, in line with major commodities as the US-Israel conflict and Iran have left global markets on edge. Despite those upheavals, the institution’s interest has not waned.
US spot ETFs now make up about 9% of total Bitcoin trading volume. That sounds modest – and it is. In US equity markets, ETFs account for 30-40% of total trading volume. The gap tells its story about how much room there is left for institutional participation to grow.
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History Offers a Cautionary But Compelling Pattern
Midterm election years have not been kind to asset risks. The S&P 500 fell 16% during those cycles.
The decline of Bitcoin has increased, which is estimated at 56%. But the 12 months after a midterm election have, without exception, since 1939, produced positive gains for the S&P 500, averaging 19%.
Bitcoin, with only three post-midterms on record, has gained an average of 54% across all three.
Reports from Binance Research have also identified $78,000 as the level that Bitcoin will need to recover to signal a reversal of the broader trend.
BTC was trading around $71,500 at press time. The distance between the two numbers is not large, but in a market that moves this quickly, it is not small either.
Featured image from Incrementumchart from TradingView
