Bitcoin Crash Too Far Away? Analyst Shares What Painful Bear Markets Can Get For It
Bitcoin’s extended pullback from its all-time high it left traders uncertainand many investors are unsure even if it’s the worst of the descent it has passed.
Another analyst known as Jelle on X is of the opinion that the discussion may be missing the unpleasant truth that Bitcoin bear markets tend to be more painful than many participants expect. The price of the data, he says, supports more about the interpretation of how the current Bitcoin pullback will play out.
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Current Bitcoin Drops Less Than Previous Bear Markets
Crypto Jelle analyst issued an interesting warning for investors who may underestimate the depth and length of Bitcoin bear markets. In a post on X, Jelle noted that Bitcoin is currently down about 44% from its all-time high of $126,080, while the February low of around $63,000 registers a 53% drop from the peak. These sound heavy on the surface. However, they are modest compared to recorded history.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets pushed the asset much deeper below the peak. The market crash following the 2017 rally eventually wiped out nearly 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the bear market that followed the 2021 cycle saw a close to 77% decline.
A review of the chart Jelle shared, shown below, shows how consistent the cycle structure has been. Since 2014, Bitcoin has fluctuated between periods of continuous accumulation and decline. Each bull run lasts about 150 to 152 weeks, and each bear market lasts anywhere between 52 and 58 weeks.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X
The current bear phase, by that measure, is much shorter than the period in which previous cycles found the bottom. Forecasting a bear market phase from October 2025 will put the current correction in place until sometime around October 2026.
“Unfortunately, I think there’s a lot of pain ahead for BTC,” Jelle said.
RSI Tells Investors to Wait
The analyst also examined the Bitcoin strength index index, which has repeatedly provided clues about when bear markets are about to end, in another post. Jelle noted that the entire previous bear market ended when the weekly RSI dropped below the 37 level. Once the index crossed under that boundary, it usually falls further before the price of Bitcoin reaches its final bottom.
Bitcoin is down about 30% since the RSI started moving below that level in the current cycle. That goes down less than what happened to it earlier cycles, although not enough to stand out as a clear anomaly given the limited number of examples.
More important, according to Jelle, is a pattern that builds towards the end of a bear market. The last low usually occurs when the RSI creates a high low near the level recorded on the previous low. That high low can happen near the low price low or the high low price.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X
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If the price makes a lower low but the RSI prints a higher low, the price action is producing a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. That signal has always preceded the transition from bear market conditions to the next phase of accumulation. Until that building is seen, patience is the best way.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
