Bitcoin’s five-year annual growth rate has fallen below gold for the second time in its history, according to Fidelity Digital Assets, marking a rare moment for a long-term asset defined by its long-term returns. In the markets, the signal is not just the relative performance against gold, but about what the slow growth profile can say about the current market cycle of Bitcoin.
In a new Chatter Chatter column posted on X, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has been trending lower over time as the asset’s price has risen. He said that the convertible, has now produced a rare crossover. “What we see now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We’ve now seen three straight months of year-over-year CAGR below Gold’s.”
What This Means for Bitcoin
That’s a key figure in Fidelity’s framing. Bitcoin has spent most of its history comfortably ahead of gold for a combined five years, making January’s break remarkable on its own. The fact that it has now continued for three consecutive months gives the move more weight, especially coming during what Fidelity clearly describes as a bear market.
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Wainwright tied the last comparable streak at the end of the previous cycle. “Back in 2022, we saw one month of this happen in December 2022, when the price of Bitcoin was coming out of a bear market at about $15,000,” he said. “We are now back in a bear market and below that CAGR for the longest time in this three-month period.”
According to Fidelity, declines below gold are rare, but have also happened before during periods of major market weakness. The difference this time is the duration. One month in late 2022 can be dismissed as a short reversal near the bottom cycle. The three straight months at the start of 2026 suggest continued pressure on Bitcoin’s long-term return profile.
At the same time, Fidelity did not include the crossover as evidence that Bitcoin has lost its definitional limit completely. Wainwright was careful to emphasize historical balance. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above gold’s CAGR for most of its history,” he said. “So this is a unique event that is happening in Bitcoin, where it is now below the CAGR of Gold.”
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The golden side of the comparison is also important. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, then rose to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026. This helps explain why Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has now fallen below gold.
For now, the takeaway is straightforward: Bitcoin has had a strong long-term track record against gold throughout its history, but early 2026 produced a rare exception. Whether that proves another disruption of the late bear market or the first sign of a mature, growing Bitcoin is the question that Fidelity has now put squarely in front of the market.
At press time, BTC traded at $74,015.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
