Bitcoin ETF Owners Are Under $5K Even As Institutional Demand Returns

Institutional holders quietly added about 26,600 BTC to ETF positions during the latest acquisition, a 2% increase in total assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) touched $76,000 on March 17 to register its highest price level since early February, as institutional investors continued to pour money into US-based ETFs, extending a multi-day recovery streak that came after February’s big exit.

However, the increase in demand is entering the main barrier, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr., ETF investors are still sitting on unreachable losses of $5,174, which he says may affect price action around the $80,000 mark.

ETF Flows Recover, But $79,962 Target Price Reached

In his latest market update, Adler said Bitcoin ETF flows have gone through what he called a “full cycle” in the past month, from a contraction in mid-February to a sustained recovery in the past few weeks. According to him, from February 15 to 24, the seven-day average net flow of the ETF remained negative, hitting a low of about -1,883 BTC per day on February 18.

However, around February 25, the trend changed, and the flow turned positive and increased to around +3,387 BTC per day on March 2. Adler currently puts the seven-day average at around +1,472 BTC per day, and liquidity conditions are also improving. At the same time, the total value of the ETF increased by about 26,600 BTC, which is a little more than 2%.

The analyst sees this change as a return to institutional demand after the previous exit. However, he points out that this demand is below a clearly defined level of resistance.

That level is the realized value of the ETF group, which Adler made at $79,962, a value that reflects the average cost of buying the ETF for all investors. And with BTC trading at just over $74,000 after hitting six weeks, it means the team still has a total paper loss of over $5,000.

Adler described the gap as one of the most important features of the current market structure. This is because, as Bitcoin gets closer to the available prices, more investors will get closer to the breakout, which will make it easier for them to sell. For that reason, the market expert says that the $80,000 region is the place where the upward movement may stop unless the demand is strong enough to find another potential.

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At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed BTC has risen more than 5% in the past 7 days and the same in 30 days. However, the rise was almost 9% in two weeks, although performance still lagged year-on-year, as the stock fell about 11% in value during that period, ending up more than 41% below its all-time high.

For now, Adler is watching the $80,000 level as the main battleground.

“A close above $79,962 combined with a sustained ETF net inflow of more than +2,000 BTC per day would signal a regime change,” he wrote in his analysis.