Bitcoin i approaching the price level that is without exception, it led to the absolute deepest of all the biggest bear market cycle in its history, and on-chain indicators show a moment of great opportunity it may be approaching for Bitcoin traders to make money from the incoming rally.
Bitcoin’s Historical Bottom At The 200-Week Moving Average
One level of expertise hold with remarkable consistency over more than a decade of Bitcoin price history. This technical level is, in fact, a 200-week moving average. Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle meaningfully below the 200-week moving average, even during the 2020 pandemic crash and the end of the 2022 cycle, and, in each case, made a strong recovery every time it touched it.
The chart below shows Bitcoin moving in cycles, where each correction ends up cooling around this long-term average before starting a rally phase. Notably, Bitcoin price action followed this same script in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each time, the extended pullback ended only after Bitcoin touched or briefly dipped below the 200-week moving average.
The chart also adds a 14-month Relative Strength indicator that is read directly from the price through a color-coded dot system. The red dots highlight the overflowing excitement around cycle tops, while the blue dots show the oversold conditions associated with capitulation bottoms. On the other hand, the green and yellow dots, fill the recovery and mid-cycle phases.
Currently, BTC is trading just above that same line again, placing the price at a historically low level. Green dots have once again started to form on the current price line. This is the same RSI pattern that appeared at the bottom of 2015, the bottom of 2018-2019, and 2022 down.
If history holds, the distance between the current price and the confirmed cycle bottom may be very small indeed. Bitcoin could start a new rally from here or pull back here to retest $60,000 again before starting a rally.
Large Split Property Targets $500,000
According to crypto analyst Coinvo Trading, a multi-year Cup and Handle formation is playing out on Bitcoin’s monthly chart. A bullish structure extends over several years, a round cup that forms from mid-2021 to early 2025. A break of the neck resistance occurred in 2025, and the holding phase of the pattern was formed from that time.
As it stands, BTC is we are now approaching the final stages of this formation. Coinvo Trading indicated the estimated price of this breakout at $505,761, based on revealing the full depth of the cup formation above the breakout level. “If it breaks, it’s too late,” the analyst warned.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
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