Historically, there have been similarities between past Bitcoin cycles when it comes to both bull and bear markets. Most of this has to do with the percentage by which the price goes up, and then the percentage by which the price starts to go down. Naturally, the expectation has been that the price of bitcoin will again follow the previous cycle, leading to very low prices. But can there be any deviation from this?
Bitcoin Will See Another Big Crash, But How Low?
Crypto analyst Patel highlighted the history of Bitcoin’s price performance over the past few cycles and how it can translate into the current cycle. Over the years, Bitcoin’s bear market has often seen the digital asset crash by an average of 80%, suggesting that this is likely to happen this time.
Following this same trend, the analyst explains that a crash of 77% in this cycle will put the price of BTC somewhere around $32,000. However, Crypto Patel does not believe that this is possible and that the price of Bitcoin will not go this low.
Now, usually, after Wave 3, the price sees a big crash, which often sends it to a new low. This means that there is still one more crash left for Bitcoin before the bottom is reached. The question now is how much the price can go down.
Instead of crashing 77% to $32,000, the crypto analyst believes that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below $40,000 in this cycle. This will mean that it does not get less than 70%. Instead, the $40,000-$50,000 level is expected to be the biggest pain point for investors.
You are still following a 4 Year Cycle
Despite the deviation that occurred back in 2024, when the price of Bitcoin reached its highest level before the halving, other parts of the 4-year cycle seem to follow this trend. As @ArdiNSC points out at X, the top has been hitting a new 4 year cycle.
It was the same in 2013, then 2017, before 2021, and finally in 2017, about 4 years apart each time. Given this, it is possible that at least some parts of the 4-year cycle are still in play. In such a case, then it may mean that the decline in the price of BTC will continue, since historically, it has reduced the year before reducing.
This means that BTC has just entered a bear market, lending credence to Crypto Patel’s prediction that another big crash is coming. If this 4-year cycle holds, then it is possible that the price of Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high somewhere between 2028 and 2029.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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