Is This Bitcoin Price Down Or A Scam? Analyst Reveals Where You Shouldn’t Be Happy
The recent Bitcoin price has renewed optimism, but not everyone is convinced that the market has changed. Although the price has shown signs of breaking out, the crypto analyst notes that the big setup for BTC is still the same as usual. bear market structure. The key question remains whether the recent move reflects a real price drop or another temporary rally before another drop.
Why Bitcoin Price Breakout Is Not a Bullish Reversal
In X’s post on Tuesday, March 17, crypto analyst Ardi they argued that traders misinterpret Bitcoin’s recent rally above $75,000 assuming that any breakout automatically signals the end of a bear market. He explained that these types of price increases are part of how bear markets work.
The analyst noted that breakouts usually form macro low highs during a downtrend. He emphasized that these price rallies can appear strong at first, but they usually don’t last and tend to set the stage for the next decline.
In support of this, Ardi pointed to the Bitcoin price action in 2018 and 2022 as a clear example. After reaching all-time highs in both of these years, the market entered a sustained decline, creating a series of low highs. He noted that in both bear market cycles, there were about five relief rallies.
Sharing a chart showing the return of Bitcoin over time 2022 bear marketThe analyst showed that the cryptocurrency experienced sharp spikes in January, April, June, August, and November. Each of these rebounds temporarily boosted the price, but none reversed the overall decline. He added that in every jump, sales pressure came back, brought the market down.
Ardi noted that this is the latest spike Bitcoin’s first bounce was experienced in five monthstherefore its timing is unpredictable. He also highlighted that many traders have already adjusted their view, closing positions after just one green run. In his view, this reaction shows the lack of a well-founded trade thesis.
The Analyst Reveals What Actually Confirms the Low
When it asked on his basis bearish viewArdi rejected the idea that Bitcoin’s behavior is only integrated four-year cycle theory. Analyst said that bear markets do not depend on this cyclical logic and will exist without explanation. He stressed that market structure and time-based patterns have more weight.
Ardi explained that a typical market consists of about three years of upswings, followed by a short downswing or consolidation phase. This period usually lasts 9 to 12 months and is characterized by low volatility and sideways price action. During this time, the market develops the necessary conditions long term change.
The crypto analyst also pointed out certain levels that Bitcoin will need to retrace before considering the next bearish and bullish reversal. He noted that the cryptocurrency would have to go above $85,000 and pass $96,000 by more than 3% to show a real change in momentum.
Without meeting at least one of these conditions, he believes that the market has not provided enough evidence to support a further rise. Until that happens, Ardi insists that the rise in the price of Bitcoin is not guaranteed down the market. The bear market chart for 2022 shows that many rallies are possible inside a broad downtrendand that short-term strength alone is not enough to show lasting price changes.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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