Demand for housing continues to grow as mortgage rates hit their lowest point

Weekly pending sales

Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and seasonal fluctuations. The last five weeks have been good for our weekly pending sales data. We’ll see if that goes forward, especially since rates go up every year and could continue higher this week.

Weekly pending sales typically take 30-60 days to receive sales data. Generally, mortgage rates are higher than 6.64% and a breach of 7% really affects the data. Less than 6.25% is where sweet has been for the past few years, with short-term fluctuations out of the equation.

Weekly pending sales for the past week for the past two years:

• 2026: 71,230
• 2025: 68,726

Mortgage application data

App purchases data is a forward-looking line of data: growth here leads home sales approximately 30-90 days, and last week we saw 12% year-over-year growth with 1% week-over-week growth. Weekly growth slowed last week and this week we are at risk of a negative weekly print. This happens more often when you have consecutive weeks of rising ratings.

In this data line, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth. If you can find this and the year-on-year growth, we have something legit, that’s for sure. In 2026, each week showed positive year-over-year growth. The weekly data has been positive; However, that is very easy to do with rates below 6.25%.

Here’s 2026 so far:

• 5 beautiful prints of the week
• 4 weekly negative prints
• 1 weekly flat print
• 7 weeks of double-digit growth year over year
• 10 weeks of great annual growth

10-year yield and housing rates

In HousingWire’s forecast for 2026, I expect the following range:

• Loan rates are between 5.75% and 6.75%
• The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%

When the Iran conflict started, I talked about how I would be shocked if it continued on March 21 because of the economic consequences of the war, including high energy costs and installation costs. On Friday, March 20, the bond market took the conflict seriously and, for the first time since September of 2025, the 10-year yield closed above 4.31%. The bond market has now paid for all the rate cuts and now the price is going up in 2026.

This week is key for me because we now have a clear path for the 10-year yield to reach 4.60% – the high end of my forecast. If this conflict continues and worsens, bond yields will rise and bond yields will rise.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads remain positive for housing in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels. Mortgage spreads worsened when bond yields fell in February, as spreads tried to make mortgage rates lower with falling yields. Now they are spreading more and more with this conflict.

At the moment, the spread is still very good, but your improvement is the only thing keeping the rates from going above 7% again.

Historically, mortgage spreads have varied from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spread closed at 1.97%. Also, Friday’s one-day distribution is not included in this weekly data.

However, I wanted to show this week’s rates relative to the worst spreads over the past three years, with the 10-year yield at its current level.

• If we had the worst mortgage spread rates in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53%
• If we had the worst rates for 2024, loan rates would be 7.29% today.
• If we had the worst rates for 2025, loan rates would be 7.10% today.

Weekly housing inventory data

Housing inventory should now begin its annual growth. However, the rate of inventory growth has actually slowed from last year’s high levels, to the point where we may see some negative prints year-over-year in our weekly inventory. However, we are still far from the unhealthy levels of 2021, 2022 and 2023.

We went from 33% year-on-year growth in inventory to the highest point in 2025, to 6.35% last week. In the past, inventory growth rose amid high levels, softening demand and an increase in new listings year over year. New listing data is still negative year-over-year, but this week, it’s a good start to the spring season expansion.

• Weekly inventory changes: (March 13-March 10): Inventory increased from 697,251 to 705,633
• The same week last year: (March 14-March 21): Inventory increased from 655,625 to 668,155

New listing data

The new listing data is also a bit disappointing this year. While I still believe we can get a few weeks over 80,000, the year-over-year growth rate has been a little negative for weeks now.

I still hope the new listing data ranges between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during peak seasons, as it did from 2013-2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.

Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:

• 2026: 68,016
• 2025: 69,701

Discount percentages

In general, about one-third of homes are discounted before they sell, reflecting the volatile nature of the housing market. As the loan and property values ​​rise together, the percentage of the amortization increases.

In my price forecast for 2026, I had a negative call of 0.62% per year nationally.

However, mortgage rates were lower than I thought they would be at the beginning of the year and the FHFA’s announced purchases of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads lower than I expected. I believed that we would see that improvement later in the year. So, before the conflict started, my forecast for 2026 looked wrong. Now, if prices go up and stay high for a long time, I have to say that my call is more correct. However, the percentage of price reduction is lower than last year at this time.

Last week’s price reduction percentage:

Next week: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran

Nothing important this coming week except Iran. Last week we broke a 10-year key level and the entire calendar year is now shaped by high rates, high inflation and no rate cuts. In fact, rate hikes are now back in the discussion for 2026. If this conflict worsens, we could see more rate hikes in 2026, and no member of the Fed will talk about rate cuts unless we enter a deep recession. So for now, the Iran conflict is shaping what the rest of 2026 will look like for the economy and the housing market.