Ethereum may be approaching a major inflection point, according to market analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts at X), who argues that a combination of technical structure and on-chain valuation data is beginning to reverse the setup back in favor of the bulls.
In a post on X, Martinez said Ethereum is showing signs of a “major structural change,” pointing to a multi-year ascending triangle on the weekly chart, a recent test of support near $1,800, and a historically significant drop in the MVRV ratio. Taken together, the message was clear: recent weakness may look less like a collapse and more like a reset within a larger bullish structure.
Ethereum’s Path to $10,000?
Martinez framed the chart setup as the backbone of the thesis. “From a technical perspective, ETH continues to trade within the well-defined ascending triangle on the weekly chart,” he wrote. “The recent move toward $1,800 was a key reaction point, consistent with the upward trend of this multi-year structure.” In other words, the analyst does not consider the jump as an independent event. Conformity comes from where it happened: precisely at the level that he views as structurally significant in the context of a long-term pattern.
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That technical debate was accompanied by an on-chain signal that Martinez described as critical. He said Ethereum’s MVRV ratio recently dropped below 0.8, a threshold he described as a rare valuation reset. “Historically, this is a ‘Buy Normal’ area. We’ve seen similar resets before major rallies in the past,” he wrote. “The fact that this on-chain reset occurred as price tested the triangle support adds more weight to the bullish view.”
The logic of the call depends on that overlap. Examining chart support itself can invite doubt, especially after a long period of weakness. But Martinez’s argument is that Ethereum doesn’t just hold an important structural position; it does so while on-chain data suggests that the asset has entered an area associated with deep neglect in previous cycles. That doesn’t guarantee a trend reversal, but it sharpens the importance of the current range.
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He also pointed out the change in pressure during low periods. According to Martinez, the daily Supertrend indicator has now turned green for the first time since May of last year, suggesting that the long-term consolidation may be giving way to a new direction. According to him, the market is coming out of the “side mill” and is starting to pick up momentum.
From there, Martinez set the price levels that would explain the thesis. He identified $2,356 as the first major level Ethereum needs to recover, followed by $2,647 and $3,639 as mid-year exit targets. Besides, he marked $4,632 and $5,624 as long-term extension points.
The big prize, however, lies above. “A sustained move above $2,356 would be our first confirmation that ETH is moving out of ‘collection’ and into a true bull market expansion,” he wrote. “If it can clear the previous high region near $4,900, the door will open to reach $10,000, as it will show the breakout of the ascending triangle.”
For now, this thesis remains conditional rather than absolute. Martinez described the $2,000 to $1,800 range as “prime rally territory,” while adding that the bull market is “not confirmed” yet.
That caveat is important. His case for a strong bottom rests on Ethereum holding the $1,800 low and returning to higher resistance levels in a row. If that happens, the current setup can be remembered as an early phase of accumulation instead of just another bounce within a wide range.
At press time, ETH traded at $2,054.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
