This Is Why Bitcoin Is a Better Risk Barometer Than Private Equity

Private markets make prices sporadically and imprecisely; BTC makes prices continuously and publicly, an important difference when conditions decrease.

Analyst Jamie Coutts said Bitcoin’s transparent ledger and real-time prices could expose weaknesses in private equity markets.

The comments, made in the wake of broader market pressure and falling crypto prices, raised questions about how risk is measured across asset classes.

Linking the Structure of BTC in the Light of Private Equity

In a series of posts on X, Coutts argued that for years, private equity hid volatility by avoiding market prices, a practice he described as “currency volatility.” He also warned that losses in those portfolios may not be apparent until conditions worsen.

“No market does not mean no loss,” Coutts warned. “It means nothing was found until it was late. And it was late.”

The analyst cited several signs of difficulty in traditional markets, including the rise of the MOVE index, pressure on the US dollar index, which is approaching the 100.50 level, and strengthening credit conditions in the private equity and AI-related sectors.

He also said that there are bearish technical signals in equity markets, such as RSI divergence, when prices are rising or momentum is weakening.

It is against this background that Coutts suggested that Bitcoin’s recent strength has been structural rather than driven by strong demand, citing a market reset in February where excess supply was cleared and an exit activity that reduced volatility in 2025.

“Bitcoin is gaining momentum as the facade of the fiat fractional-reserve credit system limps from one crisis to the next,” the market watcher wrote.

However, he warned that if risky assets fall by 10% to 15%, BTC may return to its February lows, and a possible bottom is formed later in the second or third quarter of 2026.

You may also like:

The crypto researcher also noted that although Bitcoin ETF inflows were picked up in March, they may have already declined. According to data from SoSoValue, as of March 18, daily inflows for BTC ETF positions were negative, coming after seven straight days of inflows reaching just over $1.1 billion.

Fragile Sentiment In Crypto

Recent comments by US President Donald Trump, in which he threatened to “destroy” Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushed BTC below $68,000 for the first time since March 9.

However, the material is back and available trading over $71,000 at the time of writing, following the latest controversial development. The current price represents about a 17% year-over-year decline and a nearly 7% decline over 7 days, but it’s still a 3% gain over two weeks.

Market sentiment is weak, with the Fear and Greed Index currently at 8, indicating “great fear” despite Bitcoin trading over 15% above its February low near $60,000.

But according to Coutts, BTC differs from private equity in this area. While private markets rely on periodic valuations, the sovereign cryptocurrency trades continuously with publicly visible transactions.

He suggested that if traditional portfolios are forced to reprice, assets such as Bitcoin with transparent values ​​can react quickly, and when liquidity support returns, BTC will likely react early, showing its great sensitivity to changes in financial conditions.