Bitcoin, XRP Rallies Won’t Take Off Until Oil Falls Under $80, Expert Warns
Brent crude down about 12% on Monday the exchange is trading around $94, but market expert Sam Daodu warns that oil prices will have to drop significantly – in the $85–$80 range – before potential rallies in Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP prices can be sustained.
According to Daodu, energy prices remain the main link between the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the direction of the crypto market, and until they ease, the fear of inflation and interest rate concerns will continue to put the asset at risk.
Bitcoin, XRP Retrace Amid Oil Rush Rate Risks
Bitcoin it currently sits just above the key psychological level of $70,000, while XRP is rallying around $1.44. Both tokens have retreated modestly from last week’s highs, with Bitcoin down around 4% and XRP down around 5% on the weekly chart after facing resistance at the top.
That pullback, Daodu said, is combined with the same major forces that have pushed oil above $100 in repeated highs since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz began in late February. Daodu it emphasizes that high oil prices maintain inflationary pressure and, more importantly, keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.
Related Reading
The Fed’s message on March 19 played down expectations for easy monetary policy. When the prospects of reducing rates fade, capital flows into riskier assets, and crypto, which still behaves as a high-risk asset, tends to suffer.
The expert also highlighted structural reasons crypto markets appear to be more sensitive to country shocks. Because digital commodity markets are open around the clock, they absorb the first wave of risk sentiment immediately, often before traditional markets open.
That 24/7 liquidity profile can lead to sharp moves in the price of Bitcoin and XRP following the weekend or the headlines of the night, as sales are concentrated in small markets, as Daodu notes in his report.
Brent Near $80–$85 Could Unlock Lasting Profits
Despite these headwinds, Daodu notes that there are constructive technical patterns beneath the surface. Bitcoin was invented high standards in consecutive sales since late February, suggesting buyers stepped in during each dip.
XRP, on the other hand, maintained a holding area around $1.35–$1.45 with the recent rally, showing firmness as the rallies failed to hold.
Most importantly, Daodu says that oil is a turning point that could break the current pattern of short-term crypto rallies. He noted that if Brent retreats to $80–$85 with signs of an end to the war or diplomatic progress, inflationary pressures should ease and the Fed could find room to consider rate cuts.
Renewed expectations of simple policy it will likely bring risk money back into the crypto markets and give Bitcoin and XRP the boost they need to continue their gains.
Conversely, if energy prices remain north of $100, all stimulus will be balanced by the same inflationary forces and volatility levels that have dominated price action since February.
Related Reading
Daodu also reminded that several fundamentals that existed before the conflict have not disappeared: the SEC’s move towards treating Bitcoin as a commodity, the entry into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the progress of the CLARITY Act.
Those catalysts are still there but, in his view, they are holding off until broader conditions – led by the oil slump – allow risk assets to reassert themselves.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
