$11.3 Billion Flows Into Bitcoin ETFs In One Month While Commodities Sell Off – Details
Bitcoin is worth about $70,000. The price went sideways. Capital flows under it did not.
Analyst Axel Adler published data that completely reframes the current consolidation: during the 30 days ending March 25, Bitcoin ETF funds absorbed 62,986 BTC in income – $11.3 billion in institutional capital entering the market while the price went from $64,100 to $71,307. That is not market drift. That is a market that is being bought silently.
The acceleration signal sharpens the image continuously. The 7-day average flow currently stands at 3,288 BTC per day against the 30-day average of 1,256 BTC – which means that institutional purchases work 2.6 times at your monthly rate. Combined ETF holdings have reached 1,326,874 BTC, a record that reflects the ongoing, cumulative nature of this demand rather than a single episodic event.
The counterweight is real and should not be underestimated. Short-term holders often see losses in trades – market participants sell on weakness, adding pressure to spread that institutional entry is currently pulling and winning.
That’s the structure of this market in one sentence: institutions are buying faster than selling commodities. At $70,000, the question is how long that figure holds.
Retail Sells Bitcoin at a Loss
Adler’s second dataset examines the other side of the market structure equation — and it’s less mundane than the ETF picture. The Short-Term Manager’s P&L to Exchanges metric tracks how many BTC trading participants are sending to trades at a loss versus a profit in any given 24-hour period. Currently, that reading stands at 15,500 BTC per day flowing in the trading at a loss, against the total entry of the STH exchange of 35,200 BTC in 24 hours.
The arithmetic does not change: most of the trading activities that affect the exchange see a loss. This is not a temporary confusion. Adler identifies it as a regime change – a structural change in behavior that started at a high price point and has not returned to the average since then. Short-term traders are opportunists. They are selling because they are underwater, and have been for weeks.
What the data does not show is equally important. The -15,500 BTC daily flow loss is consistent with the ongoing pressure, but it does not have a definite spike that marks the last history – an exhaustion event when the last sellers were forced to leave the market at once. That spike hasn’t arrived yet.
The retail segment remains weak. Part of the facility is still operational. The signal that resolves the conflict between them is straightforward: the losing side sends pressure while the price holds or rises. Until that pressure appears, the state of depression remains.
Weekly Chart Shows A Broken Bull Market
Bitcoin is trading at $69,362 during the weekly session, up 2.22% from the candle that opened at $67,859, to $72,026, and has since retreated. That weekly high rejection at $72,000 – a level the market tested and failed to hold – is a practical technical fact. The candle is green. Abandonment is real.
The larger context that the weekly chart provides is important. Bitcoin came from a 2023 base near $25,000, doubled in 2024, and peaked above $125,000 in late 2025 – a complete cycle of nearly 400% from where it originated. The current price of $69,362 represents a 45% decline from that peak, tracking all ahead of 2025 and returning to levels last seen in November 2024.
The moving central configuration tells the most important story of the plot. The price broke below the 50-week MA – the blue line, now turning down near $98,000 – and is currently testing the 100-week MA, the blue line rising in the region of $67,000-68,000. That green line provided definitive support for all major corrections in this cycle. It was held in 2024. It is being tested again now.
The 200-week MA, the long-term red line, continues its slow ascent near $58,000 – the deepest support that has never been broken in Bitcoin’s post-2020 history.
This week’s low of $67,445 held the 100-week MA by very small margins. Whether it holds close is the only question the weekly chart is asking right now.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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