The structure of the Bitcoin market shows a different signal: institutional demand for ETFs is increasing, while short-term holders are still selling the exchange at a loss. That difference helps explain why BTC is holding close to the $70,000 area even if the selling pressure remains visible in the on-chain data.
In his latest Morning Brief, Axel Adler Jr. said the US spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed 62,986 BTC over the past 30 days, equivalent to $11.3 billion in inflows between February 24 and March 25. During that time, the ETF’s combined holdings rose to 1,326,874 BTC. The pace of shopping increased materially. Adler said that the 7-day moving average of ETF flows reached 3,288 BTC per day, compared to 1,256 BTC in the 30-day average, which means that the current weekly pace is running about 2.6 times higher than the monthly trend.
That institutional bid has so far outpaced the breakout and coincided with Bitcoin’s price move from $64,100 to $71,307 in the same month. Adler’s reading is that ETF demand is providing a bottom, but not a clean breakout signal on its own. For that to happen, he said, short-term outflows need to remain positive for a few more periods and the market still needs to avoid a new run of highly driven ETF days.
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The other side of the picture is not so positive. Adler said that short-term holders remain firmly in the realm of loss-making, with flow on the loss side to trade at 15,500 BTC in 24 hours. The total income of the short-term holder on the exchange stood at 35,200 BTC per day, a sign that the selling pressure remains active even if it has not yet reached the kind of extremes usually associated with storage.
Bitcoin STH Stress Eases But Whales Prevent Rally
That broader stress signal is offset in part by a different comment from Darkfost, who argued that panic behavior among new managers has dropped significantly since February.
He wrote: “When BTC fell below 60,000 dollars, a wave of panic appeared among the smallest investors (STHs), forcing them to send about 100,000 BTC (total of 7 days) to Binance in early February. This behavior has evolved significantly, as these STH inflows to Binance are now divided into four records. BTC.”
That doesn’t contradict Adler’s thesis so much as refine it. Selling pressure is still present in all markets, but the most serious panic phase may be over. Darkfost labeled the change as “a very positive signal,” adding that the drop in Binance’s revenue represents a “real decrease in selling pressure” during what he called a difficult period for risky assets.
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However, order-book data suggests that Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet. CoinGlass tagged a “heavy selling wall at 72.3k–72.6k” and called it “key resistance to any bounce.” It also pointed to nearby bids around $69,200, strong support at $68,200 to $68,500, and deep liquidity around $67,000 to $67,500.
In CoinGlass’s words, “This is a classic set of heavy top offers with layered bids below. Unless BTC re-claims a major selling wall, short-term price action still looks likely to sweep the currency lower first before staging a strong bounce.”
Taken together, the data point to a market where institutional congestion is pulling supply fast enough to have firm value, but so far not forcing significant releases. The positive story is straightforward: ETF demand remains above trend, fear selling among short-term holders continues to cool, and Bitcoin is holding above $70,000.
The danger is equally obvious. If the ETF flows and the market fails to clear the selling wall of $72,300-$72,600, the next move could be a sweep to lower liquidity before any strong recovery begins.
At press time, BTC traded at $69,573.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
