Weekly pending sales
Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and seasonal fluctuations. The last six weeks have shown good year-on-year growth. However, annual growth slowed last week and week-on-week data declined.
Weekly pending sales typically take 30-60 days to receive sales data. Generally, mortgage rates are higher than 6.64% and a breach of 7% really affects the data. Less than 6.25% has been the sweet spot for the past few years, with no short-term fluctuations.
Weekly pending sales for the past week for the past two years:
- 2026: 70, 209
- 2025: 69,183
Mortgage application data
The data for the purchase application is a forward-looking indicator: growth here leads to the sale of the home in about 30-90 days. Last week, we saw year-over-year growth, but it dropped from 12% to 5%, and we saw a week-over-week decline of 5%. Therefore, higher mortgage rates entered the annual growth data last week.
In this data line, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth. If you can find this and the year-on-year growth, we have something legit, that’s for sure. In 2026, each week showed positive year-over-year growth.
Here’s 2026 so far:
- 5 beautiful prints of the week
- 5 weekly negative print
- 1 weekly flat print
- 7 weeks of double-digit growth year over year
- 11 weeks of good year-on-year growth
10-year yield and housing rates
In HousingWire’s forecast for 2026, I expect the following range:
- Loan rates are between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran conflict started, I talked about how I would be shocked if it continued on March 21 because of the economic consequences of the war, including high energy costs and installation costs. If the conflict continues for a long time, short-term high prices can go until we see real economic damage.
In last weekend’s tracker, I talked about how the 10-year yield is now back to the high levels of my 2026 forecast. Due to the rise in Iran, we saw an intraday gain of 4.48% on Friday, closing around 4.44%. Remember we were below 4% before the war started, and it took a few weeks before mortgage rates and the 10-year yield started to take this war seriously, but here we are, near the 2026 forecast peak.
Obviously, the war was not the reason for me to predict this level, but all analysts have to adapt to crazy events.
Mortgage rates ended the week at 6.64%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and Polly’s mortgage foreclosure data showed a weekend rate of 6.41%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for housing in 2026, as mortgage rates were above 7% in 2023, 2024 and 2025, with very negative spreads. However, spreads, which worsened in February as yields fell, pushing volatility lower, are now higher this fight. But even now, as you can see below, we are at better levels than the last two years.
Historically, mortgage spreads have varied from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spread closed at 2%.
However, I wanted to show what rates will be this week compared to the worst levels of the spread over the past three years, with the 10-year yield at its current level.
- If we had very bad mortgage rates spread 2023Loan amounts can be 7.75% today, not 6.64%.
- If only we had worse standards 2024Loan amounts can be 7.37% today.
- If only we had worse standards 2025Loan amounts can be 7.18% today.
Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory begins its seasonal increase. That said, the list’s growth rate has actually slowed from last year’s highs. However, we are far from the unhealthy levels of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We went from 33% year-on-year growth at the peak in 2025, to 5.69% last week. In the past, inventory growth rose amid high levels, softening demand and an increase in new listings year over year.
- Weekly inventory changes: (March 21-March 28): Inventory increased from 705,633 to 713,549
- The same week last year: (March 22 -March 39): Inventory increased from 668,185 to 675,557
New listing data
New listings data had a slow week, but slightly better year-over-year. We should get more than 80,000 new listings per week during the peak months of the season, which would be at the high end of the range we would see in a normal period.
I hope that the new listing data ranges between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the peak periods of the season, as happened from 2013 to 2019. However, it seems unlikely that this will happen. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:
- 2026: 67,934
- 2025: 67,855
Discount percentages
In general, about one-third of homes are discounted before they sell, reflecting the volatile nature of the housing market. As the loan and property values rise together, the percentage of the amortization increases.
In my home price forecast for 2026, I had a negative call of 0.62% for the year nationally. However, mortgage rates were lower than I thought they would be at the beginning of the year, and the FHFA’s announced purchases of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads lower than I expected. I believed that we would see that improvement later in the year.
So, before the conflict started, my forecast for 2026 looked wrong. Now, if prices go up and stay high for a long time, I have to say that my call is more correct. However, the percentage of price reduction is lower than last year at this time.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Next week: Iran, Iran, Iran and jobs week
I know it’s a busy week, and that has some benefits even if the argument is still going on; however, nothing will be normal until this war is over. Also, markets aren’t taking the White House jawboning to lower oil prices as much as they have in the past, so it will be interesting to see the bond market’s reaction to oil prices and labor data this week.
