In the last two months, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) tried to recover the balance of $80,000, the prices during this period increased to about $76,000. Interestingly, a market analyst recently explained that this is due to a key price level acting as resistance.
Price Reversals Create Resistance to Recovery Efforts
In an X post on March 28, On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted the fundamental forces behind Bitcoin’s recent problems. This analysis is based on the reading of BTC Virtual Price Excluding >7Y Supply, a a metric that shows the cost base of the circulating supply, but excluding those of seven years or more, which aims to filter out diamond hands (that is, both lost and inactive BTC).
❌ BTC has not been able to go back above the received value excluding inactive supply.
This chart provides a cost base that excludes supply over 7 years to better reflect a truly cyclical supply.
⁰— 💡This method filters both missing… pic.twitter.com/RZ6vH1oSLA– Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 28, 2026
Currently, this fixed price is sitting around $72,500, a level above which Bitcoin has struggled to see sustained price action over the past two months. Citing previous historical cycles, Darkfost asserts that similar conditions often accompany extended bearish phases.
In terms of market value, Bitcoin has spent between six and 10 months below this investor cost base during extended bear markets without significant recovery. This shows that the repetition of historical patterns can cause the Bitcoin market to have more months of negative price growth, despite the bear market that has already lasted six months.
BTC Market Overview
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $66,629, representing a gain of nearly 1% over the past day. Interestingly, CoinMarketCap data shows that the BTC market has not moved much in the past month, with a deviation of 1.27%. According to popular market analyst Ali Martinez, the first cryptocurrency has received more attention from traders in the past month, possibly driven by high price volatility.
Based on data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Open Interest, that is, outstanding trading contracts, reached almost $30 billion in March, marking the highest level seen in 2026. Notably, most of these transactions took place on the Binance exchange, where traders have just started $829 million more in Open Interest.
Following the difficulty of the price of Bitcoin since October 2025, the market needs a bullish change in the definition of factors such as macroeconomics, the availability of liquidity, and the presence of demand to start the recovery. However, until the market conditions are indicative of a more optimistic future, the Bitcoin market may be in for a tough time in the coming months.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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