As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a key level after breaking the bearish pattern, the analyst suggested that the crypto-flagship’s final correction before the next bull market begins in the coming days.
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The Start Of The ‘Final Washout’ Is Days Away
In Monday’s analysis, market watcher Ali Martinez confirmed that Bitcoin’s last leg before the next bull run could be around the corner based on the behavior of the flagship crypto cycle.
The analyst explained that historically, the intersection between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) marked the “‘absolute minimum’ of all major cycles since 2014.”
Over the past 12 years, whenever these two lines have crossed on a three-day chart, it has consistently signaled the start of the “last wash” before the next bull market begins. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin was already down 50%-72% from its cyclical peaks when the 50- and 200-SMAs were crossed.
23-33 days after the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction, recovering another 45%-52% before falling. In 2022, “another low formed 156 days later, ending the bear formation and opening the door to the next bull market.”
Now, Bitcoin has already seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 high, while the SMAs crossed on February 27. “As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal,” the analyst elaborated, adding that “If history ‘rhymes,’ we are probably entering the Final Rally window of this cycle to be wrapped up in the next 3 days.”
Martinez noted that while the last leg down may be scary, history has shown that the crossover is a “Golden Opportunity” for long-term investors. Based on its “reset” of 40%-50%, the analyst suggested two main accumulation areas: the $40,000 and $30,000 levels.
Structurally, this setup has historically corresponded to the last major decline before major bottom forms. (…) The countdown to the next direct move has begun.
Bitcoin Bear Flag Split Confirmed?
After closing the week around $66,000, Bitcoin has risen to the $67,000-$68,000 area to retest the key level from below. The flagship crypto has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 for almost two months, developing a bearish structure during this period.
Notably, BTC formed a bearish flag pattern during the daily period, retracing the lower and upper formation boundaries several times since the beginning of February. After last week’s correction, the cryptocurrency rallied more than 10% from its recent high to a four-week low of $65,000 on Sunday.
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During this performance, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of the bear flag formation, risking a second leg down to the lower levels. The analyst of Crypto Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently repeating the formation from the bottom after today’s jump, which can confirm that the support of the pattern turns into resistance if the price of BTC is rejected.
In addition, the market watcher pointed out that the decline of the cryptocurrency’s historical bear market was formed below the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.618, which would put BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. “Is this time different? Do not doubt,” concluded Jelle.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
