Below 40p, Aston Martin’s shares are sinking fast. How low could they go?
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Aston Martin‘s (LSE:AML) share price is now (16 March) below 40p. It is surprising that the British icon, which floated its stock at £ 19 in October 2018, has lost so much value.
However, could it recover? Or could the club’s shares fall even further? Let’s see.
Is the end near?
Some mistakenly believe that falling stock prices are a sign of imminent bankruptcy. In fact, the share price is a judgment of how much the company is worth. In simple words, an opinion, albeit one that is determined by thousands of interactions between buyers and sellers.
Even if Aston Martin’s market cap reaches £0, it doesn’t mean the team will go out of business. This will only happen if it cannot meet its daily obligations to pay its workers and suppliers. And despite its recent problems – if we look back to 2015, only annual profit is reported – there is no indication that this is possible.
| A year | Cars are for sale | Net worth (£m) | Net profit/(loss) (£m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3,615 | 510 | (107) |
| 2016 | 3,687 | 594 | (148) |
| 2017 | 5,098 | 876 | 77 |
| 2018 | 6,441 | 1,097 | (57) |
| 2019 | 5,862 | 981 | (118) |
| 2020 | 3,394 | 612 | (411) |
| 2021 | 6,178 | 1,095 | (189) |
| 2022 | 6,412 | 1,382 | (528) |
| 2023 | 6,620 | 1,633 | (227) |
| 2024 | 6,030 | 1,584 | (324) |
| 2025 | 5,448 | 1,258 | (493) |
A point of possible disruption
But ongoing losses must be funded. The money needed to continue trading must come from debt, existing shareholders, or new investors. Almost inevitably, there comes a point when these participants start to lose patience and refuse to stand up. At this point, a decision must be made. Either a new buyer will be found or the company in question will cease to trade.
Personally, I don’t see Aston Martin losing all support. Because of its reputable brand, great products, and rich automotive history, it’s the kind of business that someone will always want.
And with a market value of around £400m – not far off its book value of £329m (as at 31 December 2025) – I suspect a number of potential buyers are keen to get involved.
Whenever a takeover bid is announced, it is usually the case (there are no guarantees) that the potential buyer must pay more than the current market price to secure full ownership. But buying stocks in the hope that they will be taken over is not a good idea. After all, a person may not be seen or may come at a low price.
How much?
And the main problem with Aston Martin is that it is difficult to know what it is because of its loss. It needs to sell more cars. Cost reduction and efficiency will help it reach a certain level, but an increase in its financial performance can only come from persuading more people to buy its cars.
When the group floated in 2018, it said: “total volume is up to 7,000 sports cars per year, with additional volumes coming [sports utility vehicles] and sedans driving a volume of about 14,000 vehicles per year in the medium term“.
Unfortunately, the group only has sports cars in its current range. Based on its 2025 results, producing 7,000 of these (1,552 more than it did) would reduce its losses by around £105m. But it wouldn’t even be in the off-season.
Personally, I love the brand and hope it recovers soon. But a combination of rising prices, a sluggish economy in its key markets and war in the Middle East, is making life difficult for the British legend. I fear that Aston Martin’s share price will fall again. On this basis, I do not want to own any of its shares.
