Analyst Warns BTC Dominance Break Will Mean Alts Explode or Collapse

ETH is up 22% year over year while Bitcoin has shed about 11% over the same period, a difference that is starting to show on the charts.

Bitcoin’s market share is stuck between 58% and 60%, a six-month trading range that one expert says will determine whether Ethereum and smaller altcoins enter a bullish period or bear heavy losses.

As such, the market watcher has called for an assessment of the level at which dominance can be broken, ushering in the next big move in the crypto market.

The Narrow Corridor That Controls Crypto’s Fate

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures how much of the total BTC cryptocurrency market is building, has been stuck between 58% and 60% for the past 6 months. But according to analyst Ash Crypto, this combination has created a technical setup where a break above 60% can send dominance up to 63% or 64%.

And if that happens, it would mean that institutions are only buying Bitcoin, causing altcoins to bleed further and driving the ETH/BTC price to new lows.

On the other hand, a break below 58% would mean that capital is leaving Bitcoin and going to Ethereum and other altcoins. Analysts say that this will ensure an explosion of ETH/BTC above the 0.0320 level, which will mark the beginning of the real altcoin season.

The ETH/BTC pair itself is printing what Ash Crypto described as a bear trap, something it has done twice before.

“Break above 0.0320 and ETH starts to outperform Bitcoin,” the expert wrote. “Break below 0.0280 and a new low will follow.”

At the time of writing, ETH/BTC was trading near 0.0314, just below the key threshold that Ash Crypto had identified.

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Ethereum’s Technical Picture Gains Interest

BTC itself has been largely flat in the past 24 hours, staying above $74,000 after hitting a six-week high of around $76,000 on Coinbase on Tuesday. However, there is a lot more action in the long term, as the stock is up more than 6% in the past seven days and nearly 8% in the 30 days.

Ethereum has had a great performance over the past few weeks, rising nearly 14% over the past seven days and nearly 18% over both the last 14 and 30 days. At the time of writing, it was trading above the $2,300 level, up 22% from the same time last year, compared to BTC’s decline of about 11% during the same period.

At the same time, the ETH’s SuperTrend indicator changed from “Sell” to “Buy” for the first time since September 2025. Remember, the last two times when the signal showed, the cryptocurrency rose by 52% and 174%, respectively, which made the analyst Ali Martinez see $ 2,400 and $ 2,600 to view as the next levels.