Bitcoin could be vulnerable to another sharp leg lower if the developing wedge pattern breaks, according to market expert Aksel Kibar, whose latest chart activity points to a possible advance of $52,500. The warning is important because Kibar doesn’t frame this as a hot take or emotional blow, but as a pure technical risk signal built around the same structure he flagged before Bitcoin’s pre-sale.
In one of his recent posts on X, Kibar wrote: “See my analysis That caveat is a basic setup. He does not mean that Bitcoin must be traded there. He says the confirmed loss of the property (currently around $66,000) will open that way on the chart.
Is History Repeating With Bitcoin?
Kibar paired that with a broader point about trade management rather than faith. “If you entered with a chart signal, you must exit with a chart signal,” he wrote. In a follow-up, he added: “How can charting be used as a risk management tool? By moving aside when the timing is wrong, it protects money, freeing up other opportunities.” Read together, the message is less about calling for a spectacular fall than about respecting the invalidity when the technical setup fails.
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The background is a call made by Kibar on Jan. 19, where Bitcoin was consolidating below what it considers a long-term trend filter, the 365-day EMA. At that time, with the price trading within the ascending line and rejected near the upper border at about $97,000, he wrote:
“Consolidation below the long-term average. For cryptocurrencies I take the 365-day EMA. For stocks I take the 200-day EMA as my standard filter for the whole year. So far BTCUSD has respected the annual average. This is part of a chop and a search for a base. The pattern can be a rising wedge, usually bearish in an attempt to test the 7.57K area of the 7K test.”
That support area eventually came under pressure, and the chart he reposted now shows a deep dive into the $60,000 area before the latest rebound begins to track what he says could be a similar line.
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Notably, Kibar is one of X’s most respected technical analysts. He is a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts LLC, and before founding his research firm he worked as a senior technical analyst and fund manager at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, and a portfolio manager at the Abu Dhabi Investment Company. The CMT Association also lists him as a presenter and contributor.
For Bitcoin traders, the immediate implications are straightforward. When Kibar speaks, the market tends to pay attention. As long as the price stays within the range or breakout, the bulls are not that worried. But a break below $66,000 could open the door to another decline to $52,000.
At press time, BTC traded at $70,259.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
