Bitcoin Clears Key Supply Wall, But Weak Confidence Clouds Bull Market Outlook

Bitcoin’s push to $74,000 has shown strength, but heavy profit-taking activity and lower futures suggest this rally may lack long-term sustainability.

Bitcoin broke above the upper boundary of its February-March trading range after rising past $70,000 to briefly touch $74,000.

On-chain data shows that the asset has moved beyond a tight cluster formed between $59,000 and $72,000. However, it has recently returned below the upper limit, although the daily close has not yet arrived.

Is $82K Next?

According to the latest findings of Glassnode, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows that this area contains a significant part of the newly discovered supply, and its approval has pushed Bitcoin to a small liquidity area between $ 72,000 and $ 82,000, where the limited previous accumulation suggests a reduction in resistance in the near term. While the recent breakout describes a more likely short-term horizon, broader market indicators reveal that the move has not yet confirmed a structural change.

The Percentage Supply Profit metric rose to around 60%, which is consistent with the early recovery phases seen in previous cycles but still below the long-term average near 75% that often indicates strong bull market conditions. At the same time, the top short-term holders received a profit, which recently reached $ 18.4 million per hour, indicating the continued selling pressure that the market must absorb to maintain high levels.

Glassnode explained that keeping the price above $70,000 while grinding this profit-taking will strengthen the possibility of further gains at levels like the True Market Mean near $78,000 and the upper limit of the current range around $82,000.

Additionally, off-chain data shows improving demand conditions. For example, shares of the US spot Bitcoin ETF rebounded after the exit period amid renewed institutional participation. However, CME futures open interest remains low, which means that the current price development is driven more by local demand than relative positioning. This trend has historically been associated with stable market conditions, or stable upside often requires an increase in both cash flow and other exposures.

Strengthening buyer activity was evidenced by spot market indicators, as the cumulative volume delta in all major markets changed from persistent selling pressure to net buying, with Coinbase flows stabilizing and trending upward.

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Persistent Bearish Betting

In the derivatives market, persistent liquidity levels indicate the accumulation of short positions, which contributed to the recent rally due to short capitalization. Options data continues to show a shift to a more balanced structure, as implied volatility has decreased, which has ultimately reduced the need for lower hedges and a gradual increase in call buying.

Meanwhile, the concentrated gamma exposure around the $75,000 level may continue to influence price action in the near term and may increase the upside with the flow of seller hedging. Glassnode added,

“This backdrop suggests that further upside may be supported in the near term, although a sustained trend may require continued capital inflows and a broader increase in leverage and confidence.”