Bitcoin Saw Heavy Past Losses While Supply Remains Frozen

Some weak participants are exiting the Bitcoin market while the majority of inert holders remain inactive, Adler Jr. he noted in his latest analysis.

There is a notable difference in the Bitcoin on-chain structure, where observed losses have increased to extremes as the supply chain continues to contract. This points to a possible stage of sales fatigue.

According to the latest analysis shared by Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss, which tracks the balance between gains and losses realized on all UTXOs, has fallen heavily into negative territory, and losses have reached almost $2 billion during January-February 2026. The metric was last seen at these levels during the bear market of 20322-2022.

The Offer Refused to Go

Such a pattern comes after a long period from October 2023 until the end of 2024, when the metric remained positive during the rally from $30,000 to the peak of $125,000. The current dominance of realized losses, especially at prices that are stable at $65,000-$75,000, points to the stress of weak managers, which historically is associated with periods of market depression and depressed sales activity.

However, Adler Jr. he explained that this alone does not guarantee a change in practice. At the same time, the Supply Active 30D Change metric, which measures changes in the proportion of coins that have recently been moved, has dropped below zero. This shows a contraction in “small” UTXOs and reduced coin movements, and is compared to the previous bullish phases, where a sharp increase of more than 12% in this metric was accompanied by a strong price development.

The current decline means that the coins are falling asleep and shows a lack of wide distribution despite the huge losses experienced. Adler Jr. he went on to add that these factors indicate fatigue in loss-driven sales rather than the assured recovery needed.

Diversification means that while some market participants are retiring, the majority of owners remain unemployed. Structurally, this corresponds to accumulation or absorption phases, although confirmation requires a continued recovery with the 7-day moving average of Net Realized PnL back in positive territory while supply activity remains low.

Major Risks Ahead

More importantly, the main risk is in a situation where supply activity accelerates before PnL recovers, which would indicate renewed distribution rather than organic recovery.

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Until such a confirmation appears, the current market regime remains neutral, and conditions suggest pressure on selling pressure rather than the beginning of a definitive bullish reversal.