Why is the top of the market moving in a different cycle

The luxury housing market is showing a different type of resilience than the broader housing sector, according to data from the Trend Report 2026. While rising mortgage rates and affordability pressures have slowed activity in all markets, the luxury segment continues to move under a different set of variables driven by buyers with high net worth, long-term wealth investment strategies. Michael Altneu, vice president of global luxury at Coldwell Banker, leads strategy and insights for the company’s luxury division and helps shape its annual luxury markets report. In this interview, he explains why real estate sales are increasingly going through a different cycle, how wealth migration and the resulting transfer of wealth are reshaping demand, and why personalization and long-term wealth planning are central to luxury purchasing decisions.
HousingWire: “Resilience” is the main theme of this report. What does sustainability look like right now in the luxury space, and what are agents misreading when they think luxury will move like the broader market?
Michael Altneu: The word resilience really comes from the data. When we break down the top 10% of the housing market, luxury growth in 2025 is almost double the pace of the traditional market. That was an important moment because it showed comfort from a broader housing cycle than we’ve seen historically.
Another reason is that high-end and high-end buyers work differently. They are still price conscious, but they are less sensitive to interest rates and have more flexibility in how they plan to buy or withdraw money. Another factor is how real estate fits into a wealth strategy. For many high net worth individuals, luxury real estate is the foundation of their portfolio rather than a speculative purchase. That said, luxury transactions are not easy. These deals often involve much greater complexity than normal transactions. Family offices, wealth managers, lawyers and international considerations can be involved. Pricing and marketing are still important, and if properties are positioned correctly, they trade correctly.
Durability also varies by market. Some areas have very limited inventory where homes sell for more than asking, while others require more negotiation and pricing. To think that luxury operates independently of the wider economy is a misconception, but power is different.
HW: The report suggests that luxury real estate is changing from a speculative asset to a cornerstone of ownership and long-term wealth preservation. What signs do you see that consumers are thinking strategically?
MA: A big part of that change comes from lifestyle and personalization. After the pandemic, homes became more important to the way people lived and worked. Luxury buyers are looking for properties that reflect their personal lifestyle and can support long-term family use. We also see the concept of generation. Most purchases are intended to be heirlooms. That’s changing the way buyers evaluate properties—they’re thinking in terms of decades, not just the next market cycle.
Inventory constraints have also forced buyers to be more strategic. In some markets, turnkey homes simply don’t exist, so buyers are willing to renovate or build to build what they want.
For agents, the advisory role becomes more important. Some buyers are looking for investment properties or second homes, while others are buying properties for sale. Understanding those goals is essential to successfully targeting them.
HW: The migration of wealth and the concept of “solid resorts” are changing the map of luxury. What framework do consumers use to choose where to invest?
MA: We looked at several metrics to identify strong markets—luxury sales growth, price changes, number of jobs and new inventory. Markets that showed consistent balance in all those indicators stood out. But consumers also evaluate a range of personal factors, including tax structures, lifestyle preferences, climate considerations, safety and mobility. Flexibility and location have become more important. Consumer behavior data also supports that change. Buyers are increasingly looking for larger homes with more space and more amenities.
For agents, preparation means understanding the migration patterns and demographics of people entering their markets. Luxury buyers tend to think globally, and many already have multiple locations. The ability to advise clients in all markets is becoming increasingly important.
HW: The report highlights the massive wealth transfer underway, with Gen X starting the line and millennials gaining a larger share over time. What is the most overlooked outcome of luxury real estate?
MA: The biggest gap is understanding the difference between data and real-time market information. The data shows what was sold and for how much, but doesn’t explain why. In the luxury market, those details matter. Understanding why one property sold and another didn’t usually comes down to knowledge that comes only from working in the market and talking to participants directly.
Another factor that can be overlooked is the number of participants in high value transactions. As prices rise, deals often involve family offices, advisers, lawyers and multiple family members. Agents who want to position themselves early with heirs need to maintain relationships beyond the transaction. Being a trusted resource and continuing the conversation after the deal is closed is what builds long-term trust.
HW: Your team suggests that “living big” may replace quiet luxury. What does that look like in 2026?
MA: The data shows a clear shift to larger homes with more bedrooms, bathrooms and square footage. But “living big” is about the opportunity to create something unique. In some cases, buyers pay premiums for unfinished properties because the space and power allows them to design something very personal.
Quiet comfort focuses on ease and restraint. What we’re starting to see now is more exposure—larger spaces, more amenities and lifestyle-designed buildings. Of course, every market is different. In areas with very tight inventory, buyers may simply pay a premium for whatever is available.
HW: When does the luxury of a ready-made space become a smart strategy rather than a compromise?
MA: It’s the right strategy when the opportunity isn’t there or when personalization is the goal. At the higher end of the market, buyers often have certain negotiable items—certain streets, locations or lifestyle features. If those structures do not exist, building or repairing becomes the only way to create them. These projects require patience and resources, but they allow buyers to start with a blank canvas and do exactly what they want.
From an advisory perspective, agents need to understand the client’s timeline and long-term goals. These projects can take years, but the result is often a very personal property that becomes both a home and a lasting part of the family legacy.



