CoinFund president Christopher Perkins is betting that 2026 will be defined less by the narrative of new tokens and more by balance sheets, regulatory-enabled product launches, and the messy maturation of crypto in the buy, sell, and merge industry. In the series of Dec. 31 in X, Perkins made seven predictions:
#1 Crypto ‘M&A Summer’ And A 25 Billion Deal Year
Perkins’ first and loudest call: 2026 will be “the year of crypto M&A.” He put 2025 M&A activity at about $8.6 billion in total deal value, then predicted 2026 would “reach $25bn,” pitching it as a step change rather than a slow grind.
He outlined the pressure for consolidation in many areas, from “DAT/Labs/Foundation consolidation” to “DAT vs DAT (mNAV reckoning),” and a two-way bridge between traditional and crypto currencies. The direction of travel, in his telling, is straightforward: TradFi firms are trying to catch up and crypto firms are buying their way into regulated power.
“TradFi → Crypto (ugh, I’m behind and need to catch up),” he wrote. “Crypto (DATs, Exchanges) → TradFi (we need active companies, securities skills and licenses, too!).” He also flagged “Asia→US” as a theme, asserting that a clear regulatory environment will attract international players to the US market.
“2021 was the summer of stablecoin; 2026 will be the summer of M&A,” concluded Perkins.
#2 Stablecoins To $600 Billion
Perkins’ second prediction is the market capitalization of stablecoins, “exceeds $600bn (2x).” His reasoning rests less on the use of retail and more on extractive economies and market pipelines.
“For every stablecoin, someone is making a profit. Who wouldn’t want that?” he wrote. “As markets change, you will need stablecoins to buy and sell them. Watch for rapid growth in 2026.”
The bottom line is that stablecoins become the default asset to pay for on-chain transactions—especially when more real-world assets and market structures migrate on-chain—while issuers’ rewards remain stable.
#3 A $2 Billion-Plus Crypto Hack As A Catalyst Policy
Perkins also predicted a major security event: “A large hack > $2bn will shake confidence, lead to restructuring and prompt policy changes.” He pointed out what he described as an alarming trend, citing $3.4 billion in hacking by 2025, “a 51% increase,” and argued that the attack surface is expanding as tokens and stablecoins bring “hundreds of billions more” on-chain.
He went further than the usual call for better security practices, floating a provocative historical reference as a possible policy guide. “Perhaps it is time for a new change in policy, such as Letters of Marque and Reprisal,” he wrote. “I’m just saying…” The implication: if losses mount, the policy response can be aggressive—and less visible.
#4 Controlled Derivatives Are Back
Regarding the market structure, Perkins predicted that US crypto derivatives will return “to the US in a big way,” with a “big battle for market share” as “new players enter the space.” Even as he expects the US share of global derivatives volume to triple, he argued that CME’s slice of US crypto futures could fall amid wider competition.
His thesis focused on regulatory dynamics and institutional trading behavior. “Now that the regulatory path is clear, there will be an increase in future regulated products introduced in the US,” Perkins wrote. “As crypto enters the institutional era, the need will be gone because basic trading will be their first step. This will bring life back to alts.”
#5 No Market Structure Bill
It’s not all about speed. Perkins’ fifth prediction: a comprehensive market structure bill “won’t pass,” blaming the gravity of the political calendar. “Sorry guys, this one is going to be tough. Midterms are going to take the oxygen out of the room,” he wrote.
#6 New ATHs for Bitcoin and ETH
Despite that, he still expects a new high in the majors, which values bitcoin at $150,000 and ether at more than $5,000. “BTC and $ETH will hit ATHs,” Perkins wrote. “BTC hits $150,000; ETH hits $5,000. Institutional acquisitions make this possible.”
#7 NFTs Are Back, But Not Like Jpegs
Ultimately, Perkins predicts an NFT revival with a format change. “NFTs will make a comeback, but version 2.0 won’t be jpegs,” he wrote, taking exception to CryptoPunks while dismissing the broader JPEG-led revival. Instead, he expects “financial tokens, which can’t be frustrated,” possibly tied to “individual securities, with security/yielding assets.”
At the time of publication, the total crypto market stood at $2.94 trillion.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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