Bernstein says Bitcoin bottom is in, reaffirming year-end target of $150K
Bernstein, the research and brokerage arm of AllianceBernstein, believes that Bitcoin has bottomed out and is reiterating a year-end target of $150,000, which is more than double the upside from current levels.
The call, issued in a note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani this week, comes after a drawdown that has stripped Bitcoin of half its value since its October 2025 record high.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $70,000 at the time of the report, having recovered from a low of around $62,500 reached in late February. The token reached $126,279 last October, which means the subsequent slide reached almost 50% among the sharpest corrections in the post-Bitcoin era.
“We believe that Bitcoin has found its trough and is now looking higher,” Chugani wrote.
Why Bernstein thinks the bottom is inside
That frame depends on what didn’t happen during the descent. Previous bear markets were often marked by stock market crashes, credit defaults, or business failures.
The 2026 fix, fueled largely by geopolitical concerns after US-Israeli military strikes on Iran since late February, has produced massive liquidation among power traders and profit-taking by long-term holders, but no systematic disruption.
The flow of ETFs has held steady
US Bitcoin ETFs, approved as early as 2024, have received more than $56 billion in cumulative revenue.
Despite a volatile start to the year, these brands have shown great resilience, recording four consecutive weeks of revenue reaching $2 billion in March 2026.
The combined assets of the US Spot complex now sit at around $90 billion, representing around 6.4% of the total Bitcoin market.
Collection of business
Public companies jointly hold more than one million Bitcoin, about 5.6% of the fixed mark of 21-million-unit supply.
The most prominent accumulator is Strategy, the enterprise-software-company-turned-Bitcoin-treasury-vehicle formerly known as MicroStrategy, which holds 762,099 coins.
Bernstein maintained an outperform rating on Strategy shares with a price target of $450, which represents a more than 220% upside from the stock’s recent high of $138.
One notable fundraising vehicle is STRC, Strategy’s preferred permanent stock, whose trading value has risen 65% in the past three months, and its permanent structure allows the company to raise long-term capital without the dilution of equity that comes with issuing common stock.
Bitcoin versus gold
Bitcoin has outperformed gold by about 25% since the tensions intensified at the end of February, a comparison that Bernstein cited to argue for the asset’s performance as a physical store, resistant to scrutiny during a global depression.
According to Glassnode data, more than 60% of the circulating supply is now held by long-term participants, which means that the pool of coins at risk of being forced to sell during a downturn has decreased compared to previous cycles.
