Rising rents on the Gold Coast reflect a change in Australia’s housing climate

Australia’s housing pressures are not limited to very large homes. The Gold Coast has recently attracted attention for having the most advertised rental properties in Australia.

As migration flows reshape where people live and work, fast-growing regional centers like the Gold Coast are becoming important drivers of national housing demand.

While headline rankings can sometimes be misleading when comparing different housing markets, the underlying data tells an interesting and structurally important story.

Rather than just being an affluent coastal market experiencing rising rental prices, the Gold Coast is emerging as one of the most expensive and fastest growing rental markets in the country.

Rapid population growth combined with housing supply struggling to keep pace with learning helps explain the low vacancy (1.19%, Feb 2026) and near doubling of housing rents seen over the past five years.

Population data from the ABS shows the Gold Coast has added more than 68,000 residents since 2019, taking the state’s city population to just under 700,000 as of June 30, 2024.

At current growth rates, the Gold Coast is likely to surpass the 700,000 milestone by 2025 and could approach 730,000 residents by mid-2026.

That makes it the largest non-capital urban area in Australia, larger than many other regional centers such as Newcastle, Geelong or the Sunshine Coast.

This growth is notable not only because of the number of people arriving, but because of the speed of expansion of the already large city. Since before the pandemic, the Gold Coast’s population has grown by around 11 per cent, which is almost 4 times the rate of Sydney’s population growth over the same period. In a housing market that is already approaching metropolitan scale, that represents a huge boost in demand.

Population growth at that rate has had a major impact on housing. With the average household size in Australia sitting at around 2.5 people per dwelling, the Gold Coast’s population growth means the need for around 27,000 additional homes over the 5 years to June 2024, just to keep housing supply stable.

When population growth occurs faster than housing stock increases, house prices tend to rise and vacancy rates tighten while rents rise.

Data on residential property approvals provide insight into how housing supply has responded. Approvals are a very good measure of how many houses are actually built and added to the housing stock, so we adjust for approvals for demolitions and demolitions.

Permits usually translate into completed homes within the next 1 to 3 years depending on the type of residence. Detached houses typically take a year from approval to completion, and apartment projects are closer to 2.5 years. As a result, approvals from previous years are now being translated into new offerings entering the market.

REA Group Senior Economist, Eleanor Creagh. Image: Provided

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The data suggests that as of June 2019, the Gold Coast has about 3,400 less houses compared to population growth until mid-2024, under the assumption of 2.5 people per dwelling.

Adding this forward and considering population growth continues at a pace of 2023-24 while the approval pipeline continues under current projections and declines, you see that the shortage not only continues but worsens in 2025 and 2026 with a cumulative shortage of more than 8000 housing units.

If the average family size was less than the gap between the stated housing need and the average total delivered as of June 2019 (accumulated housing shortfall) it would be even greater.

The growing gap is measured against June 2019 and therefore reflects the change in the housing balance since that time, measuring how much conditions have strengthened during this period.

So even though the Gold Coast has been building at a steady pace, about 7 dwellings per 1,000 residents each year, that hasn’t been enough to keep up with population growth.

We also saw a significant drop in construction activity on the Gold Coast, going from about 9 homes per 1,000 residents in 2020 to close to 6 in 2022. That population decline is increasing, which is why we are now seeing a huge housing shortage.

Modeling suggests that the housing shortage on the Gold Coast is not only expected to continue but is likely to worsen. Even if population growth had been much lower than the 2023-24 pace put forward, the gap between demand and supply could have doubled by now.

And to keep population growth steady, there is a net shortfall of approximately 8,200 households.

At this point, the recovery in approvals will not solve the shortfall immediately due to the curtailment of construction, the market is likely to remain undersupplied for several years.

This shortage explains the continued upward pressure on rents and house prices, as Gold Coast rental properties are now some of the most expensive in the country.

The composition of the new supply is also important. The pipeline that supplies the Gold Coast is heavily led. Almost two-thirds of approvals were for apartments on the Gold Coast as of 2019, with less than one in 5 foreclosures.

While high density has impacted overall housing, demand for vacant housing remains strong, meaning rental pressure continues even as new construction is brought in.

The Gold Coast supply pipeline is heavily led. Image: Getty

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The Gold Coast’s population growth is also part of a dynamic region. The Brisbane–Gold Coast–Sunshine Coast corridor has added more than 300,000 residents combined over the past five years, making Southeast Queensland one of the fastest growing regions in the country. This tunnel now contains nearly four million people.

Increasingly, the Gold Coast operates less as a tourism-driven market and more like a large urban labor market combined with Southeast Queensland.

Improved connectivity, interstate migration and a more diverse economic background have broadened the city’s appeal beyond its traditional role as a tourist or lifestyle destination. Employment growth in sectors such as health, education, and technical services has helped support this change.

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These structural changes help explain why the rental market has tightened significantly. When a large influx of people occurs and the housing supply cannot respond at the required rate, rents and prices tend to respond quickly.

Supply is growing, but not yet enough, fast enough, or at the right pace to fully address the strong demand for housing.