It may come as a surprise amid the noise, negativity, and volatility in today’s home market that Florida remains the strongest home building market in the country.
The housing situation in the third most populous country has a strong, flawed outlook alongside other Sun Belt markets.
This region has been challenging for home builders. By following trends in mortgage rates and consumer preferences due to the COVID pandemic, they are creating predictive – ready-to-own – inventory items. As a result, they now need to lower prices and tap their toolbox of deals and incentives to move that existing inventory, squeezing their profit margins.
Home prices in Florida have taken a hit. In accordance with Zillow According to the data, 15 Florida metro areas are among the 20 metro areas in the country where home prices fell the most between January 2025 and January 2026.
For those reasons, Florida can be seen as a very challenging market. Home prices have fallen across the state, and population growth has returned to normal after a sharp spike during and after the pandemic.
The truth is, interviews with builders and developers working in government reveal a more complex picture. While conditions in many parts of the Sunshine State are fraught with challenges, taken as a whole, Florida shows remarkable resilience.
Slower population growth in Florida
In accordance with US Census dataFlorida gained only 22,517 new residents in the most recent domestic migration, down from 58,411 in 2024, 183,646 in 2023, and 310,892 in 2022. Lisa McNatt, Director of Market Statistics, Central and North Florida, for The CoStar teamyou have been told Builder’s Day that estimates call for population growth to slow further by 2026.
There are many reasons for the slowdown. Strong hurricanes have driven up insurance rates, and dramatic increases in home values mean Florida homes are no longer the luxury they once were. Florida, which was the fastest-growing state in the nation between 2021 and 2022, also benefited greatly from the epidemic, but the rate of COVID-19 has long since subsided.
“You had that in the migration of COVID workers from California, New York, Boston and Chicago. Everybody came because they could work from home, and Florida was open. And then, in addition to the reduction of the COVID, you had interest rates going up,” said Joel Underwood, President Homes in Tri PointeOrlando Division. “I think that has a lot to do with why demand is being reduced.”
Not all markets in the state are created equal, however.
Census data released Thursday shows some major markets are experiencing negative population growth, while many smaller, outlying areas continue to gain residents.
Pinellas County, home of St. Petersburg, and Miami-Dade County, posted the second and third largest population declines in the country between July 2024 and July 2025.
Meanwhile, Ocala, a small metro area northeast of Orlando, had the highest population growth rate of any metro area in the nation at 3.4%. Lakeland, located between Orlando and Tampa, ranked fourth.
The data paints a clear picture – population growth remains strong in affordable pockets, but people are not moving to the more expensive parts of the country as much as they used to.
The Orlando area also remains a bright spot in the state. Despite not growing as fast as it was a few years ago, Orlando was the fastest growing metro area in Florida between 2024 and 2025, and ranked 10th nationally in terms of growth.
Tri Pointe Homes announced its expansion into Florida in April 2024, when it opened its Orlando division. Outside observers have questioned why Tri Pointe decided to enter the state when market conditions appeared to be unfavorable. However, Central Florida is stronger than other parts of the country, Underwood said, and Tri Pointe’s emphasis on high-end neighborhoods gives it an edge over entry-level builders focused on higher education markets.
“The basics in Central Florida about where to live depends on where you are,” Underwood said. “At Tri Pointe, we prefer to find those prime and prime locations where we can bring a premium brand to a prime location and design our product to fit that specific location. For us, it’s been an opportunity to continue looking at those prime locations.”
Tri Pointe recently launched its first Florida community in New Smyrna Beach, located an hour northeast of Orlando, a few blocks from the beach. The Orlando division continues to grow with many other projects in prime locations.
Alex Akel, President of Houses in Akelbased in the Palm Beach area, pointed to Port St. Lucie as another strong sub-market in the state. Located in northern Palm Beach County, Port St. Lucie is within walking distance of the West Palm Beach area. It also offers a very affordable price point.
Akel Homes recently unveiled a 55+ luxury community in Port St. Lucie, and there has been a lot of interest from buyers from more expensive markets in South Florida, as well as from out of state. The 55+ segment, both locally and nationally, continues to outperform the overall housing market.
“They’re coming from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, and they want to be in Port St. Lucie. The same can’t be said for other markets,” Akel said, pointing to Southwest Florida submarkets like Cape Coral, Port Charlotte and Fort Myers as particularly challenging.
Market forces, surprisingly, vary across countries.
“It varies depending on where in Florida. Many markets in Florida have increased prices so much that people have been sold. You have seen that a lot of families, and obviously, they have retired. But the bottom line is that the pockets of Florida are still working very well,” said Akel.
Akel, along with other Florida home builders, identified Southwest Florida as the most challenging home building area in the state. A look at how much the region’s prices have fallen over the past year is a good indication of why.
Four of the five US metropolitan areas that experienced the largest decline in home prices between January 2025 and January 2026 were in Southwest Florida. Punta Gorda (-11.93%), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (-9.19%), North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton (-7.54%) and Naples-Marco Island (-5.97%) each had upward price corrections.
Marshall Gobuty, Founder and President of Bradenton-based Pearl Housesbuilt almost exclusively in Manatee County, located just south of the Tampa area.
Pearl Homes has not reduced the prices till now. If he can, Gobuty can simply wait for the market to correct itself as he has homes in prime locations, many of which are not on the water. However, his incentives have increased significantly in the past two years, as consumers remain reluctant.
In 2024, Category 4 Hurricane Helene caused widespread damage along Florida’s Gulf Coast, including an estimated $350 million in damage in Manatee County. Less than two weeks later, Category 3 Hurricane Milton made landfall nearby, causing even more damage.
One of Pearl Homes newest communities, Hunters Point, is located near the water in the community called Cortez. It’s just minutes from Anna Maria Island, which is still rebuilding after being hit hard by Hurricane Helene.
Hunters Point, designed with hurricane-resistant materials, was partially built when Hurricane Helene made landfall. There were no floods and no insurance claims, but the looming ravages of the 2024 hurricane season clearly affected consumer psychology.
“We are very close to Anna Marie Island. Our front door is a bridge to the island. People were hesitant because of all the losses, and it affected us,” said Gobuty.
Getting down
There is evidence that the housing market in Southwest Florida may have bottomed out and may be normal. Zillow predicts that Southwest Florida home prices overall will be flat or slightly lower in 2026, a big improvement from last year.
Gobuty acknowledged that conditions in the Bradenton area are still difficult. National forces, such as high mortgage rates and affordability constraints, are a factor, and local conditions, such as hurricane damage and rising insurance rates, are clearly a concern. However, there have been positive signs so far this year.
“The traffic has increased, people are still looking, it used to be one or two looks, now we are talking about three to five looks, because there is a lot of doubt,” explained Gobuty. “We’re getting a lot of excitement, and our leads are up more than 15% compared to last month. I don’t want to beat ourselves up, but I think we’re out of a bad place. But it’s still not a good time.”
Insurance rates have become a major concern for many Southwest Florida consumers following the difficult 2024 hurricane season. Lucienne Pears, VP of Economic and Business Development at Babock Ranchmaster-planned community near Fort Myers, said home insurance alone is a major hurdle.
In some cases, prices triple or quadruple after 2024, forcing some residents to move and pushing potential buyers out of the market. Even though Babcock Ranch was ranked the fourth best-planned community in the nation last year, Southwest Florida, Pears acknowledged, is the most challenging housing market in the state.
“A number of builders say they’re going to burn through the inventory they have. They have a lot of inventory,” said Pears. “So they are very focused on starting new buildings only when there is a contract, not doing any speculative building and burning their inventory because there is a lot of thought involved.”
