Bitcoin 53% Down From Peak Of Cycle – Key Clearing Levels For Full Recovery
The Bitcoin market remains in a bear phase that has now lasted for six months. During this time, the main cryptocurrency established a low point of $60,000, while the maximum value of the cycle and the current high all remain at $126,000. Notably, prominent analyst Burak Kesmeci provided insights, highlighting key price levels that define the current market setup.
Bitcoin In Correction Range But Low Risk Remains – Details
In a QuickTake post on March 27, Kesmeci notes that current price levels indicate that Bitcoin is 53% below its all-time high. The analyst explains that while this margin suggests significant losses, it is also consistent with the expected correction range of 40%-70%. However, the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 bear markets experienced sequential declines of 84% and 77%, respectively, indicating a possible crash in the current cycle.
Meanwhile, on-chain cost base data from key market participants provides more insight into Bitcoin’s current state. As of March 24, 2026, new whales, defined as large holders with coins less than 155 days old, have a cost basis of about $82,800. This level now serves as an important resistance point, sitting above the current market price of $66,000, and shows a large pool of recent institutional buyers remains underwater, reducing the upward pressure as prices approach this region.
On the other hand, strong support levels are present as Binance user deposit addresses hold the cost base near $58,900, while whale wallets associated with miners remain slightly below $55,900.
Further supporting this structure, the short-term owner cost basis (STH) map from March 26 highlights a consistent pattern of overhead resistance. The total price found for the STH stands at $86,900, with smaller groups such as the 1M–3M group at $82,600 and the 3M–6M group at $96,000. Additionally, the 365-day moving average stands at $97,700. Together, these levels form a dense set of resistances that Bitcoin must overcome in order to show any meaningful trend reversal.
Conversely, the only nearby resistance currently in play is the STH 1W–1M cost base of $70,100, which remains above the current price level. At the lower end, the price found at $54,300 continues to act as a major support area, marking an important threshold for the long-term market formation.
Bitcoin price overview
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $66,012 on the daily chart, representing a loss of 4.21%. Meanwhile, the trading volume increased by 17.29% and amounted to $ 45.68 billion. According to Kesmeci’s analysis, all the major costs are coming. Bitcoin must successfully clear all these levels to ensure a change in market direction. Therefore, until there is a definitive retracement of $86,900, there are almost no indications of a bullish reversal or new high price levels to consider.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
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