Options traders in the Bitcoin market are now pricing in a better-than-even chance that the coin stays below $66,000 until the end of April – a sign of how quickly sentiment has changed since Thursday.
Fear Grips the Options Market
The change is clearly visible in one key metric. Bitcoin options’ 30-day delta skew rose to 15% on Friday, a level that suggests traders are paying a sharp premium for downside protection.
Under normal circumstances, that figure stays between 6% and 6%. Based on data from the exit platform Deribit, put options – a bet that the price will go down – were trading at 0.0580 BTC, or about $3,786, for the April 24 contract at a strike of $66,000.
Those prices mean a 50% chance that Bitcoin will stay below that level by the end of the month. Fear has been strong in Bitcoin options since mid-January.
The broad selloff hit hard on Friday. Bitcoin fell to $65,500, down 7.5% from the $71,300 it reached the day before. That single move wiped out more than $200 million in active long positions and made nearly all call options worthless before the $18.5 billion monthly expiration date.
Bitcoin option prices for April 24. Source: Deribit
Bears ruled. Put options at a strike of $69,000 or more carry over $2 billion in open interest, and 95% of call options have expired.
Part of the decline, reports say, had nothing to do with price cuts. Some traders simply don’t want to carry Bitcoin exposure over the weekend, which is a common pattern when political risk is elevated and US markets are about to close.
Source: Alternative.me
Oil is at $100 and Rising Bond Yields Are Congesting Risky Assets
The pressure on Bitcoin did not come from crypto alone. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit $100 a barrel on Friday. The jump is related to rising tensions in the Middle East, and projections of up to $200 billion in additional US military spending.
That combination fueled fears of inflation and pushed investors to safer positions. The five-year US Treasury yield hit 4%, up from 3.70% just three weeks earlier – the fastest move for bond market rates. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest point since September 2025.
Where Bitcoin May Be Heading
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% so far this year. That gap is wider than the width alone can describe.
For now, the options market has its answer to where Bitcoin is headed this April – and it’s not up. As more pressure builds, policy stances fade, and traders are reluctant to hold for the rest of the weekend, the path of least resistance points downward.
Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or breaks below may depend less on the currency itself and more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the end of the month.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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