Is $60K Inevitable in BTC Amid Market Weakness?

Bitcoin (BTC) continues in a broad consolidation phase following a major decline earlier this year. The commodity remains restricted to a horizontal range that reflects short-term indecision among market participants. Although attempts to retest the higher resistance levels around $75k met with selling pressure, BTC’s support near $60k is holding so far, which defines the lower boundary of the current range.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart

In the daily time frame, BTC is showing a lower high and a clear decline following the peak above $125k. The trend remains bearish in a broader context, as the 100-day (~$78k) and 200-day moving averages (~$90k) are both trending lower above current levels, adding overhead resistance.

A recent jump to the $75k supply area was rejected, and the stock failed to even reach the upper boundary of a major descending channel and the nearby 100-day moving average. This shows that traders remain active at high levels and sell continuously in short-term rallies. The RSI is also showing a moderate recovery over the past few months, but is currently below 50, indicating that bullish pressure is still limited.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Going down on the 4-hour chart, BTC has just formed a bearish market reversal after being rejected at the key 75k level and the upper border of the flag pattern. The short-term trend shows lower highs and lower lows, and the market is breaking below the low line of the pattern at the moment.

The short-term RSI is also showing close to oversold conditions after the recent sell-off, suggesting a minor rally or possible consolidation. However, the continuation of the descending line and a few bearish imbalances forming at the top indicate that any upward movement may face strong resistance. Therefore, short-term sellers may be positioning themselves to revisit the $60k level in the coming days.

On-Chain Analysis

Spot-to-derivative trading volume for BTC has decreased recently. This indicates that the trading activity has shifted to other derivatives instead of BTC. It suggests that many participants use leverage instead of buying or selling real BTC, which tends to increase short-term volatility.

Since many traders rely on high positions, small price movements can cause an exaggerated reaction, which can lead to sharp swings when key support or resistance levels are tested. This setup highlights the weak short-term market structure despite the price consolidation, and can lead to cost elimination on both sides, but still, a bearish move and long-term elimination is the most likely scenario.