Are we on track to build 1.2m houses? Other states have quietly moved forward

New national data reveals how Australia is tracking against its housing target – and why progress is improving in some states faster than others.

Under the National Housing Agreement, all levels of government have agreed to a shared goal of delivering 1.2 million new homes over the five years to June 2029.

Launched on 1 July 2024, targets were broken down across regions and territories based on population, meaning progress is not only measured nationally, but also within each region.

Since the Agreement was announced, there has been no shortage of analysis examining how Australia is doing.

In the past year, industry associations and architecture groups have released their own assessments of whether the first year of delivery was up to speed.

However, last week, the most official summary to date came, when the National Council for Housing Supply and Home Affordability released its first quarterly report that directly tracks progress against the Agreement.

The Council is a statutory body established under the National Housing Supply and Purchase Act, 2023. It advises the minister of housing on national policy and provides analysis on housing supply, affordability and the performance of the housing system.

The data shows early momentum is emerging but also shows how far Australia still has to go and the different timelines it faces in meeting its Accord targets.

Nationally, building approvals and starts have both increased by 17% since the Agreement began. In the five quarters since the target came into effect, more than 219,000 new homes have been completed.

Construction conditions have also improved. New homes are being built almost 10% faster than last year, while real building costs are now slightly lower than when the Agreement was launched, after adjusting for inflation.

Taken together, the data suggest Australia is moving in the right direction – but progress remains uneven, and the pace still falls short of what is needed to meet the 2029 deadline.

Where progress is strong and where it lags behind

Although national statistics point to improvement, the report makes it clear that housing delivery is progressing very differently across regions and territories.

Western Australia, Victoria and the ACT are among the strongest performers so far, with strong shares of approvals and completions compared to their parts of the Accord target.

These jurisdictions are also among those expected to reach their goals by the early 2029 deadline.

New South Wales, despite leading the country in total housing volumes, remains behind its long-term trend when measured against its national target share.

This reflects both the size of the state’s population and the underlying housing demand ratio, particularly in Greater Sydney.

At the other end of the spectrum, Tasmania and the Northern Territory face much longer periods. Based on current trends, both are expected to reach their goals a few years after 2029 unless conditions improve.

Reform to do heavy lifting

One of the clearest messages from the Council’s report is that housing delivery is strongest when planning schemes are light and multi-occupancy housing is strongly encouraged.

In NSW, the changes are focused on building more homes near transport. The government’s Transport Oriented Development (TOD) program has rezoned land within walking distance of major train stations to allow for higher density.

NSW has also introduced programs such as its Pattern Book, which provides standard, pre-approved designs for low- and middle-income housing.

Victoria’s reforms similarly concentrate density in well-connected areas. New planning controls around employment centers near Melbourne’s train and tram hubs support tall buildings near stations, with low-rise housing outside.

Along with this, the state announced a series of codes to reduce approval times for small projects, such as the Townhouse and Low Rise Code and the Single Home Code.

In South Australia, recent reforms have focused on improving accessibility while supporting new provision. Measures aimed at first-time home buyers and rent-to-buy options are designed to help families move into newly built homes while also supporting the construction industry.

Queensland has also put an emphasis on infrastructure, with the Residential Activation Fund investing in essential services to unlock housing-ready land in overgrown areas.

In Western Australia, rezoning of railway stations enables high-density housing close to existing rail infrastructure, supporting new provision in well-connected areas.

The ACT has taken a similar approach with its “off-centre” reforms, expanding the range of housing types allowed in established urban areas to increase property availability without relying on high-rise development.

Are you interested in the latest in shopping and innovation? Check out our New Homes section.