Is This The Last Dip? Important Bitcoin Index Pointing to the Final Final Phase

Bitcoin’s recent SMA crossover mirrors the bottom of the cycle, which means that a possible final decline could occur within days.

Continued resistance kept Bitcoin trading within the $66,000-$68,000 range. As sentiment remains fragile, the technical signal seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022 has resurfaced.

However, this can be a great opportunity to accumulate for long-term investors.

“Golden Chance”

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified a recurring technical signal tied to the edges of Bitcoin’s historical cycle, centered on the border between the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 3-day chart. This crossover has been occurring near the last phase of bear markets since 2014, leading to one last big catch before a new bull cycle begins.

During the 2014 cycle, Bitcoin was already down 72% from its peak when the crossover was established in December, followed by a further 52% drop over 23 days that marked the final decline. In 2018 again, the pattern repeated itself after the 67% drawdown, with a crossover occurring in November and the final 50% decline occurring 33 days later.

The 2022 cycle also showed a similar structure, as a 50% decline preceded the crossover in May and an additional 45% decline within 33 days, although a second low formed 156 days later, ending the formation of a broader bear market. In the current cycle, following the peak of October 2025, Bitcoin has already recorded a 52% correction, and the SMA crossover appeared on February 27, 2026.

So far, about 30 days have passed since this signal appeared, which puts the market inside the historical window where previous cycles went down the last leg. Martinez noted that if historical patterns continue to hold, Bitcoin could enter what he described as “the final rally window” within a few days.

Based on previous post-crossover declines ranging between 40% and 50%, he points to potential accumulation areas around $40,000, which represents a very moderate reset, and a deep washout of $30,000. Although the signal does not guarantee further declines, in previous cases, it has accompanied the last significant decline before the formation of a long-term macro bottom and the transition to a new phase of the bull market.

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Bear Market Target

Extending the negative outlook, on-chain analyst Willy Woo estimated that Bitcoin could bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 based on asset valuation models. The CVDD Floor, currently near $45,500, continues to rise and serves as a support benchmark. He also found that the flow of money into Bitcoin has decreased since November amid weak demand. These models are based on a small number of past bear markets that have occurred under very favorable conditions. As such, a weak global environment could push the crypto asset below these projected levels.

A deep range was predicted by Doctor Profit, who put the bottom likely between $35,000 and $45,000. He said the market has not yet reached its low cycle. A temporary high at $79,000 to $84,000 is still possible. However, such movements are considered temporary and are better suited for short standing.