Peter Schiff begins 2026 with an empty message to Bitcoin owners: in his opinion, the trade is full, the “good news” is over, and the rest is already visible in the vehicles designed to increase the exposure of BTC.
Schiff’s Bitcoin Prediction For 2026
In the January 1 “Year-End Special” episode detailing his market predictions for 2026, a prominent Bitcoin critic argued that the cryptocurrency spent 2025 doing the one thing it shouldn’t have done in a year full of pro-crypto narratives: falling. He put that under the job as follows.
Schiff compared the BTC year to both risk assets and his large hedge. Stocks ended 2025 higher, citing the Dow up 13%, S&P 500 up 16.4%, and Nasdaq up 20.4%, while gold rose 64% and silver doubled. Bitcoin, he said, was an outlier on the wrong side.
“Everybody at CNBC was beating the table when the year started it was Bitcoin,” Schiff said, describing a narrative mix that included “Bitcoin president,” “Bitcoin strategic reserve,” heavy corporate buyouts, and the growth of ETFs. “Bitcoin is one of the only things that has gone down in a year.”
He pointed to the ETF’s performance to back up that claim, saying he checked where Bitcoin ETFs were “closed […] because they’re done for the year,” and that they’re “down just over 7.5% for the year,” even as the Nasdaq and gold posted big gains.
He then presented the crux of his plan: “If something doesn’t go up when everyone thinks it’s going to go up, that’s a good indicator that it’s going to go down,” he said. “If the market can’t go up with good news, that means all that good news is already priced in the market […] and that means all I can do is go down.”
Strategy as a “Poster Boy” Stress Test
Schiff also used Strategy, Bitcoin’s most visible proxy in the market, as a way to diagnose his choice of sentiment and structural demand.
He said Strategy ended 2025 at its 52-week low and is “down 47.5% on the year” and “67% below its 52-week high,” calling it the “poster boy” for BTC’s high valuation. Schiff’s argument was not that Strategy failed to buy BTC but that the equity market was already underpricing the model.
Schiff went further, saying that the Strategy’s five-year cost base for BTC remains around $75,000, which means only a small profit for Bitcoin near $87,000. “That’s about a 16% return, 3% per year over 5 years,” he said, arguing that trading is a one-way street. He also said that Strategy would not be able to exit at a normal price without sliding, putting “profitability” as fragile in the context of the financial freeze.
From there, Schiff extended the thesis to the market structure of 2026: if the Strategy slows down or stops buying, and if the ETF’s volatility turns negative, the demand side may not be there when it is needed. “ETFs are selling now,” he said. “They went from large Bitcoin buyers to consistent Bitcoin sellers.”
Although Schiff refrained from naming the BTC price target for 2026 in the video, the gold bug put down a “minimum target” of about $50,000 in mid-December 2025. He asserted that the strategy could not fall as he expected without Bitcoin taking another big leg down.
Year-End Special: My Economic and Market Predictions for 2026
– Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 1, 2026
Macro Backdrop
Schiff’s broad call for 2026 was a mix of weak growth, sticky inflation, and growing political pressure on monetary policy, conditions he expects to support precious metals and pressure Bitcoin.
He pointed out that the Fed has already successfully returned to easing mode: “it has just returned to rate easing, even though it has not officially admitted that’s what it’s doing” and expects rate cuts to accompany a weaker dollar. He also pegged higher consumer prices and margin pressure, predicting a 2026 landscape where “the economy will weaken” while “inflation will strengthen,” a combination he called “toxic.”
Schiff’s practical conclusion to the crypto audience was straightforward: he urged viewers to “dump your Bitcoin above $87,000,” while reiterating that he expects money to turn to gold and silver as “the flower comes out of that crypto.” […] tulip.”
At press time, BTC traded at $89,517.
Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
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