As 2025 comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its peak and experiencing a death cross formation—a technical indicator that usually precedes a significant price correction.
Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw 10-week and 50-week highs. simple moving averages (SMAs) crossed paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction
Martinez he insisted the importance of observing the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin registers a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMA, it is followed by major corrections.
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As seen in the weekly chart of the cryptocurrency below, the previous events of such a crossover led to a price drop of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022.
With the recent death cross formation, Martinez suggests that if history is a guide, Bitcoin could face a preparation between 50% and 60%, which would put their price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000.
Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags described two possible scenarios for the near future of Bitcoin.
Two Scenarios for BTC Futures
Following Bitcoin’s decline since its October high above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. In line with this, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the exit point.
As the dominance of Bitcoin and USDT shows an inverse correlation, Mags pointed out two main situations move forward. The first, bullish scenario, is based on the idea that if USDT’s dominance starts to decline, the current exit may appear to be a fake.
Mags argues that such a move could cause another rise in the price of Bitcoin, perhaps. until it leads to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs.
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In contrast, Mags presented a second condition that shows the first signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin may face a short-term bounce, while USDT’s dominance forms a lower high near the mid-range before pulling back higher.
In this case, BTC will show a slow distribution pattern, which does not mark a crash or a rapid decline, but rather a slow, volatile downward movement that is a sign of bearish market behavior in the beginning.
Next entry Dominance of USDT ready to play an important role in determining whether the current market represents a pause before price continuation or the beginning of an extended distribution phase leading to a new high that will never come.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
