XRP is pushing the weekly chart into a well-defined post-breakout range, and analyst Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) says the next indicator will come from the RSI, with a breakout “sometime in Q1” that he expects to be accompanied by higher prices and a push to $10.
Maelius’s chart is a 1W XRP/USD (Bitstamp) view with a 50-week EMA overlay. The market’s most recent regime change is clear: a sharp vertical extension that carried XRP from a long base to a higher trading band, followed by a multi-week consolidation within the shaded range.
Is XRP Set To Explode In 1 Week?
That range is reinforced by the two levels that the chart emphasizes. The upper boundary coincides with the previous spike high near $3.33 (2018 high), while the lower boundary sits just above $1.60. At the time of the screenshot, XRP is hovering around $2.124 at the weekly close, placing the price just below the 50-week EMA, a quick, visible pivot high on Maelius’ chart.
Elliott Labeling broadcasts the current chop as corrective wave 4 after an unexpected advance. The message is less “the trend is broken” and “the trend is resting.” Maelius added that “his firm estimate assumes that there is only 1W left,” which means that the market has a strong window to resolve the consolidation and transition to wave 5 if momentum warrants.
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The broad structure of the chart again invites comparisons with 2017: XRP’s first big run is from a base, a long breather in the middle of the cycle, then a second, sharp leg to the top. Compared to the middle of the chart, XRP grew by almost 7,400% in a three-month period at the beginning of 2017, consolidated from May to December, and increased by almost 1,500%.
Today’s sequence is presented in a similar form, if not in magnitude: the first strong leg from about November 2024 to January 2025 (about +500%), followed by a year-round consolidation in January 2026. In that reading, the next big leg higher may be imminent, a 5-wave push first, which may have a wave “shake”. analog.
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The bottom panel is the weekly RSI with a descending line that includes recent highs. That downward red line is the beginning of Maelius’ timing: “The RSI is coming out sometime in Q1. Price is going up.” What is said is straightforward. In his framework, momentum needs to break its own strength before the price can support the next phase of growth.
Worse, the chart carries a high-degree label that places the current wave 4 within a larger wave III, rather than showing the next wave 5 as a terminal, cycle-ending move. That’s consistent with his response when asked if $10 will be the “peak” for the quarter: “At some point in Q1 we should get a break, not a top. The next wave should be at $10.”
If the thesis works, XRP is expected to reclaim the 50-week EMA and accept acceptance back to the higher range near $3.33, the break of the RSI line acts as a confirmation event for Maelius. If it fails, a continuation of the rejection of the EMA and a break above the $1.60 range will keep the wave-4 correction phase in play and delay the wave-5 path that has been drawn.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.37.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
