Here’s Why VanEck Says Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million by 2050

VanEck says that Bitcoin can reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it takes part in commerce and reserves.

VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel said Bitcoin could reach a value of about $2.9 million by 2050 under the company’s long-term base case.

This speculation is driven by BTC’s acceptance as a currency of settlement for 5% to 10% of international trade and its emergence as a reserve asset comprising 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.

VanEck’s Durable Long-Term Wire

In a book detailing VanEck’s 25-year forecast for the currency market, Sigel projected a 15% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin between 2026 and 2050, as he framed the asset’s long-term value in terms of structural capitalization rather than short-term price cycles.

The analysis treats Bitcoin as a non-independent financial asset whose valuation cannot be captured by standard equity-based models such as discounted cash flow or price-earnings ratios. Instead, VanEck based this analysis on the possible entry of BTC into two adjustable markets, which are the global trading floor and official assets held by central banks.

Based on these assumptions, the asset manager’s base case results in a price of 2.9 million per BTC in 2050, using a base price of approximately $88,000 as of December 31, 2025, to calculate the implied growth rates. VanEck also presents other risk-taking scenarios.

In a bearish scenario, where acquisitions and Bitcoin stables fail to make meaningful or commercial inroads or stockpiles, the firm estimated a compound growth rate of 2% per year and an estimated value of $130,000 by 2050. Finally, VanEck described a capital situation where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of international trade and 210% of international GDP. Under this scenario, the price of BTC will reach about $53.4 million, which means an annual return of 29% and needs to compete with or surpass gold’s role as a global reserve asset.

Weak Market Conditions

While VanEck focused on the acquisition trends of the decade, the immediate market structure tells a different story. Matrixport, for one, said that the Bitcoin vision of 2026 is less about a new cycle and more about “smart” trading. The company explained that the crypto asset has entered a completely different realm than before, and the broad structural indicators still look negative in the bull market despite the improvement in technical indicators.

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Depreciation, weakening capital flows, and historical behavior after a break below the one-year average are moving into a selective and challenging environment ahead. On-chain data also confirms this observation and shows large, experienced owners are distributing less supply while the growth of new addresses and virtual cap entry is muted, indicating limited new capital and low participation from new investors.