Bitcoin Poised For Short-Term Rally As Price Drops Below $101K Mining Cost, Analyst Says.

Bitcoin dipped below the $101K breakeven for miners, a level historically associated with cyclical downtrends and prompting expectations of a repeat.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the estimated $101,000 breakeven level for miners on January 12, as on-chain data and headlines fueled debate about where the market is preparing for a rebound.

The move has divided opinion across the crypto community, with some analysts pointing to early signs of renewed demand while others warn that the fragile technology still leaves room for further downside.

On-Chain Data and Macro Noise Shape the Near-Time Picture

Several analysts at X have argued that Bitcoin’s pullback may be masking improving underlying conditions. According to Crypto Wise, the flow of on-chain funds seems to have slowed down and is now strengthening, while the price is trading below the cost of miners, an area that often coincides with long-term declines in previous cycles.

Macro developments also add another complication, reports from the New York Times state that federal prosecutors have opened an investigation involving Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, linked to a dispute over interest rate policy and a $2.5 billion headquarters adjustment. Although this news presents political uncertainty, the price of Bitcoin showed a small positive movement, VanEck of Matthew Sigel noting that it gained about 1% without a change in its basic set of issues.

From a technical point of view, feelings are very mixed. EGRAG CRYPTO revealed that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has dropped below the key 60 level, putting momentum in a neutral to slightly bearish zone, although the index is starting to rally higher. Some traders, such as Crypto Chase, warned that hesitation in the area between $92,000–93,000 may indicate a lack of urgency among buyers.

The Difference Between Price and On-Chain Lifetime

The price of Bitcoin has been stable, showing a 1% increase in the last 24 hours but has remained down around 1% for the week. On a monthly basis, the stock is modestly higher, although it remains about 27% below the October 2025 peak near $126,000.

However, on-chain metrics cited by CryptosRus suggest that the market is not yet at the top of the cycle. Measures such as Puell Multiple and MVRV are elevated but far from levels that have previously marked overheated conditions, indicating a slow cycle rather than complete exhaustion.

You may also like:

However, cautious voices, including CryptoQuant contributor Sunny Mom, argue that the weekly moving average loss of more than $101,000 has changed the structure to the downside, with a strong resistance built around $96,000.

Currently, BTC sits at a crossroads between improving on-chain signals and unstable technical standards. The main bullish thesis depends on the combination of Bitcoin’s approach to the cost bases of miners, the quiet recovery of local fund flows, and the large environment in which political pressure on the Federal Reserve can weaken the dollar’s position.