Mortgage application data
Traditionally I don’t count data for the last two weeks of the year and the first week of the new year due to holidays, so last week was the first opportunity to track the purchase demand data for 2026 and it started with a 16% week-over-week growth and a 13% year-over-year print.
It’s been rare to get a double-double lately, but last week this data line came out swinging. These apps look at 30-90 days and we need to see at least 12-14 weeks of positive weekly data to get something meaningful. So far:
- 1 weekly fine print
- 0 weekly negative prints
- 1 week of double-digit growth year over year
Weekly pending sales
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-by-week overview of the data, although pending sales may be affected by holidays and seasonal fluctuations. Last week showed year-over-year and multi-year growth. Our weekly pending sales data will appear in the existing home sales report 30-60 days after the pending sale. Last week was our highest weekly pending home sales data in years.
Weekly pending sales for the previous week over the past few years:
- 2026: 50,096
- 2025: 44,866
10-year yield and housing rates
In HousingWire’s forecast for 2026, I expect the following range:
- Loan rates are between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
Last week was very interesting, as the 10-year yield closed for several months. But Friday’s action in the bond market was the most interesting part, as the 10-year yield rose after Trump said he would prefer Kevin Hassett to continue his job as head of the White House Economic Council, meaning he will not be the next Fed Chair. The bond market did not seem to like the idea of another predecessor of the Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, taking the post and the 10-year yield closed the week at 4.23%. I have a trending hashtag called ‘Never Warsh,’ so my vision is clear. My pick would be Christopher Waller, who is still in the running but less likely than Warsh.
It will be interesting if bond yields continue to sell off this week, or if they just pull back and stick to the low channel they’ve been in since September, with the 10-year yield between 4%-4.20%
Mortgage rates have been rising at a low of 6% since Trump’s announcement ordering Fannie and Freddie to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, and ended the week at 6.07%. There wasn’t much volatility in mortgage rates last week as they ranged from 6.01%-6.07% according to Mortgage News Daily, and ended the week at 6.04% according to Polly mortgage rate lock data from HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads were the best housing story last year, as mortgage rates would not have reached 6% without an improvement in spreads, and that improvement continued in 2026, especially after the president’s MBS announcement.
Historically, mortgage spreads have been between 1.60% and 1.80%. If today’s spreads were as bad as they were at their 2023 peak, mortgage rates would be 1.22% higher. Now that we are close to normal, mortgage rates may stay low for a long time. This essentially prevents mortgage rates from going back above 7% even if the labor data improves – better spreads limit the damage of higher bond yields.
Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory was the best story in 2025, as inventory increased and price growth cooled, helping affordability over time. Growth in shipments at one point last year was 33% year-on-year, but as demand picked up in the second half of 2025, that growth rate slowed to 10%. Year-over-year comps will be more difficult to show the same kind of property growth in the spring, but any growth is a healthy result of the housing market. Last week there was a 10.5% year-on-year increase.
- Weekly inventory changes: (Jan. 10-Jan. 17): Inventory increased from 686,784 to 695,628
- The same week last year: (Jan. 11-Jan 18): Inventory increased from 624,375 to 632,076
New listing data
The goal for new listings in 2026 is not just to get back to 80,000 new listings a week during peak times of the season, but to grow above 80,000 in other weeks. Last year, I was happy that we reached 80,000, which is the low end of the average new listing, as we usually vary between 80,000 and 100,000, but once we got to that level, we didn’t see that much growth.
To give you another perspective, during the housing bubble years, new listings were rising between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:
- 2026: 50,303
- 2025: 45,835
Discount percentages
In a typical year, about one-third of homes receive a price reduction, highlighting the volatile nature of the housing market. Many homeowners adjust their sales prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates remain high. In 2026, let’s see how the balance of supply and demand works when mortgage rates are close to 6%, not 7% or more, which is what the market had to face from 2022-2025 in different areas.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Next week: Trump, Davos, the Supreme Court and more
On the economic side this week, we’ll get the PCE inflation report, which is what the Fed tracks. This may be hotter than the CPI report, which came in below estimates. Pending home sales will also come out, and last month’s report was a rough estimate. The data on frivolous claims, which is released weekly, remains historically low.
But perhaps the most interesting news this week will be on the political side and I will keep an eye on the bond market’s reaction to any news about the Fed. We have the Davos meeting this week, where Trump will discuss a new housing policy and possibly name a new Fed Chair. And on Wednesday the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the case of Lisa Cook, which will determine if and when the president can fire the governor of the Fed, so it’s a big week for sure.
