After years of volatility, the US rental market is settling into something close to equilibrium. Nationally, rent growth has dropped to zero, vacancy has increased, and the intense competition of the pandemic has subsided. But familiarity does not equal ease, and it certainly does not mean that the rental market has become easier.
As of late 2025, the statewide asking rent averaged $1,980, according to Apartment Listings, down about 1 percent year over year. Zillow reports similarly muted trends, with national rent growth slightly positive depending on property type. These shifts are modest, but mark a clear departure from the double-digit growth seen in the past few years.
National estimates, however, mask sharp regional differences.
Micro cycle market
In many of the Sun Belt’s high-income areas, including Austin, Phoenix, and parts of Florida, employment fell between 3 and 6 percent year-over-year. This decline is largely due to the increase in multifamily deliveries that began to be built during the height of the pandemic. Vacancy rates in these markets have risen above 8 percent, forcing landlords to rely more on concessions and flexible lease terms.
That same regionalization is reflected in tenant behavior. RentSpree’s application data shows while rental listings in limited coastal markets attract more than one applicant on average, Sun Belt markets see fewer renters than listings.
Many markets with supply constraints remain strong. In New York, Los Angeles, and parts of the Northeast, rents are slightly higher year over year, and space remains below the pre-pandemic average. Zillow data also shows that single-family rental growth continues to outpace multifamily in many urban and suburban markets, where affordability pressures are keeping demand high.
The takeaway is simple. The rental market is no longer the same.
The need has changed, not disappeared
Slower rent growth is not the result of a slump in demand. The US is home to more than 44 million rental households, according to the US Census Bureau, and affordability of home ownership remains difficult. With mortgage rates still above 6 percent and home prices elevated, more households are staying in rentals longer as they gain more choice in certain metros.
What has changed is pricing power.
Homeowners can no longer rely on market momentum alone to drive expansion. Performance is increasingly tied to property-level performance, including renovation strategies, marketing effectiveness, and resident experience. In increasingly vacant markets, maintenance has become as important as leasing.
What it really means is familiarity
For employers, normalization means more options and fewer bidding wars in some markets, but not a return to pre-pandemic buying. For agents, it means that recruitment is no longer a secondary issue. As property for sale remains stagnant, rental housing continues to absorb a growing portion of demand for homes.
The rental market is not collapsing. It is growing. Conditions vary greatly from region to region, growth is no longer automatic, and success increasingly depends on understanding local fundamentals rather than national themes.
Michael Lucarelli is the CEO of RentSpree.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: [email protected].
