Vitalik Buterin Makes $70,000 Profit on Polymarket Using Anti-Ignorance Strategy

Buterin explained that his Polymarket profits came from betting on unlikely outcomes in politics and hype-driven tech markets.

Vitalik Buterin earned about $70,000 last year trading on the Polymarket prediction market, using a principal of about $440,000.

Buterin explained that his profits came from what he described as an “anti-crazy” strategy, which involves identifying markets driven by extreme irrationality and betting against unlikely outcomes.

Politics and Technology Betting

According to the founder of Ethereum, many Polymarket participants lost money because they were swept away by panic or hype, while he deliberately observed situations where emotions are separated from reality. He cited examples such as markets predicting that Donald Trump would win the Nobel Peace Prize, or predictions made during times of great economic fear that the US dollar would drop to zero within a year.

When such situations become overwhelming, Buterin said he often bets that these “crazy things won’t happen,” an approach that, he believes, has often proven to be beneficial. When asked about the types of markets he focuses on, Buterin said that his work is mainly focused on politics and technology. He added that these areas tend to see strong emotional reactions and wildly exaggerated expectations.

Buterin also explained that markets dominated by irrational predictions often offer clear opportunities to trained traders willing to take a contrarian view. Interestingly, this is not Buterin’s first success with prediction markets. During the 2020 US presidential election cycle, he disclosed making approximately $58,000 in election-related bets, despite not regularly using Polymarket at the time.

At the time, Buterin publicly praised prediction markets as an emerging tool for collective truth-seeking, describing them as “social problem technologies” that encourage “open participation” rather than relying on “pre-selected individuals.”

Polymarket statistics

Messari’s latest findings show that Polymarket no longer dominates the prediction marketplace. On June 1, 2025, the blockchain-based prediction platform held the largest share of open interest at 57%. On December 31, the leadership had moved to Kalshi, which took 42% of the shares with an open interest of $ 355.9 million.

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Polymarket followed closely with 41%, while Mvono ranked third with a 15% share. Despite increased competition, Polymarket’s work remains diverse. In December 2025, the sports, political, and crypto markets each recorded more than 1.2 billion in trading volume, showing that the platform is not dependent on one sector.

Culture emerged as the fastest-growing category, as monthly volume rose 687% between June and December to $264.3 million. However, usage remains highly concentrated, as a small group of wallets account for most of the total trading volume.