Bitcoin is trying to recover the $90,000 level as the market remains stuck in the phase of uncertainty and consolidation. After months of high volatility, price action has slowed, reflecting skepticism from both buyers and sellers. This indecision has fueled a growing divide among analysts.
Some argue that Bitcoin is simply grinding past gains, while others warn that the current formation points to a continuation of the downtrend and possible bearishness in 2026. The lack of firm stability above key resistance levels has reinforced these concerns, especially as macro conditions remain fragile and appetite is uneven in global markets.
Adding weight to the cautious view, CryptoQuant’s latest report highlights a significant change in on-chain dynamics. Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%) has begun to trend upward again, a development that historically coincides with the early stages of bear markets.
In previous cycles, this metric turned higher as price weakness continued, indicating that losses were no longer limited to short-term traders but were gradually spreading to long-term holders. This change often marks a change in market mentality, from a temporary pullback to a more structural downturn.
Surrender to Losses Turns, Raising Pre-Bear Market Concerns
In previous market cycles—2014, 2018, and 2022—the behavior of Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%) followed a consistent pattern. The metric started trending higher well before the market bottomed out, while the price continued to decline or remain under pressure. In each case, this early expansion did not mark a rapid reversal.
Instead, it showed a gradual increase in unrealized losses across markets, as downward pressure extended beyond short-term traders and increasingly affected long-term holders. The fundamentals of a true cycle form later, after Supply in Loss has risen sharply and extensive valuations have been made.
Currently, Supply in Loss remains well below those historical levels of appointment. From a purely quantitative perspective, this suggests that the market has not yet reached an area of widespread depression. However, the importance lies less in the absolute level and more in the change of direction. The recent highs indicate that losses are starting to spread again, a trend that has historically coincided with shifts to more defensive markets.
This change challenges the narrative that the current weakness is just a temporary pause in the broader bull trend. Instead, it suggests the possibility that Bitcoin is entering a bear market structure, characterized by prolonged consolidation, repeated low tests, and delayed recovery.
While this does not preclude a short-term pullback, the on-chain signal suggests that risks remain tilted until the extension of losses stabilizes or accelerates to a historical high, where long-lasting bottoms have been previously formed.
Bitcoin Testing Key Resistance Level
Bitcoin price action on this daily chart shows a market stuck in a consolidation after a sharp structural breakdown. Following a rejection near the $125,000 region in October, BTC entered a clear downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The brutal sell-off until the end of November pushed the price below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, confirming the loss of bullish momentum and changing market control to sellers.
Since early December, Bitcoin has stabilized between $85,000 and $92,000, making a sideways range rather than continuing lower. This suggests that the pressure on forced sales has decreased, but convictions remain limited.
The 50-day moving average (blue) continues to move lower and is currently reaching an attempted high, while the 100-day (green) is also falling, strengthening overhead resistance in the $94,000–96,000 area. The 200-day moving average (red) remains below the value near the mid-$70,000s, indicating that the broader cycle has not yet fully reset, despite the correction.
Sales rose sharply during the November downturn but have since declined, indicating reduced participation rather than renewed demand. As long as BTC remains below the 50-day and 100-day bearish moving averages, the rallies may correct. A sustained hold above $92,000 would be needed to develop a short-term structure, while a break below $85,000 would reopen potential downside risks.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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