US President Donald Trump is expected to present his choice for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve on Friday morning, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the clear favorite in the market, an event that could shake up expectations and, by extension, Bitcoin and crypto volatility.
Warsh met with Trump at the White House on Thursday, according to reports from Reuters and Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, after Trump told reporters he planned to announce his pick on Friday. Trump added a pointed joke about the stranger: “A lot of people think this is somebody who’s been around for a couple of years,” a nod that he considered Warsh for the job about eight years ago before choosing Jerome Powell.
What Warsh Means for Bitcoin and Crypto Markets
The fastest rate recovery did not happen in Treasuries, but in the prediction markets. The Polymarket contract about Trump’s nominee for the chairman of the Fed currently shows Warsh at 93%, the market shows about 302 million dollars, the levels of traders are interpreted as a rewarding tread rather than a slow one.
That move coincides with a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is preparing for Warsh’s nomination, and comments from major retailers that see the process tightening into one outcome.
Many market observers position Warsh’s chairmanship as dovish on the policy balance but hawkish on the Fed’s footprint. Senior trader Alex Krüger wrote on X: “Warsh has advocated an overhaul of the Federal Reserve and a ‘New Treasury Deal.’ He argues that the AI-driven manufacturing boom is inherently static, providing the basis for drastic reductions. He also argues that the Fed’s balance sheet has been used to prop up Wall Street and should be significantly reduced, showing a strong stance against QE.”
Former Fed trader Joseph Wang broke down the trade more bluntly: “The Warsh Fed is looking to trade lower asset prices at a lower rate… This is a move to reverse the effect of Bernanke’s wealth.” That spells news for Bitcoin and crypto because it distinguishes “deregulation” from “simple financial conditions”—two market concepts often come together during risk-taking. Wang added an ominous caveat: Warsh “will get a lot of cuts, but you may not like that we [get] There.”
Warsh’s reputation as an inflation hawk also complicates any neat “dovish” label. Bloomberg American Economist Anna Wong shared this analysis below and also brought up the 2009 inflation comments attributed to Warsh, made months after Lehman and with the main PCE still low, arguing that if Trump “wanted someone easy on the money, he got the wrong guy.
Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus James E. Thorne added on X: “Kevin Warsh remains the strongest choice for Fed chairman because he uniquely combines market credibility with a clear determination to reset policy in a disciplined, rules-based manner. He is very smart on money and the balance sheet, but smartly the flexible conditions are flexible enough to support policy. institution’s legitimacy.”
Krüger acknowledged that Warsh’s record “isn’t the best,” though he argued that there is “unique credibility in a former inflation hawk who advocates aggressive austerity.”
Warsh, Bitcoin, and ‘Market Discipline’
On Bitcoin and crypto, one underappreciated angle is that Warsh has publicly described Bitcoin in surprisingly unfriendly terms. In a Hoover Institution interview published on July 8, 2025, Warsh rejected the idea that Bitcoin threatens the dollar, while treating it as a policy signal. “Bitcoin doesn’t scare me,” he said. “I see it as a valuable commodity that can help inform policymakers when they are doing things right and wrong. It is not a substitute for the dollar.”
Kevin Geza on Bitcoin, white paper and its role next to the dollar:
“It can usually be a good policy cop.” pic.twitter.com/bnSSpv0foy
– Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) January 30, 2026
Warsh also cast the role of Bitcoin as a kind of response method of the central bankers: “I think that it can often be a very good policy policeman,” he said, before expanding the lens to separate the “real innovators” from the “impersonators” and “incompetents” in the wide spread of crypto tokens.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $82,695.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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