Bitcoin May Find Next Bottom Near $50,000 Based on Gold Rate, Expert Warns
While gold has posted huge gains, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show major signs of weakness, with prices pulling towards low support levels and now approaching the much-watched $82,000 mark, a key point in determining the next major direction of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Against this, market analyst Doctor Profit drew attention to what he described as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: the Gold‑to-Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio.
That’s what the Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio suggests
According to to Profit, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for peaks and major markets. He noted that he started sharing this framework almost a year ago, highlighting the historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to be high when 0.02 BTC is equal to one ounce of gold, and low when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce.
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Profit revealed that this relationship played out during the previous cycle, which accurately marks Bitcoin’s high in 2021 and its low in 2022. He argues that the same pattern has been repeated in the current cycle, saying that Bitcoin’s recent high near $125,000 was when the ratio of gold to Bitcoin also reached the level of 0.02.
The key question now, he says, is whether the market will once again reach the 0.11 BTC-per-ounce level that it has shown historically. down. Based on the current prices, Profit went through the calculations.
Assuming a gold price of around $5,500 per ounce, dividing that number by 0.11 means a Bitcoin value of around $50,000. That result, he noted, is consistent with his broad expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom could fall somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000.
He added that I mean less than more bullish scenario for gold, analysis still supports his view. If gold were to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the same estimate would mean Bitcoin is down near $63,000. In his opinion, both of these situations reinforce the idea that gold may overtake Bitcoin in the coming months.
BTC Nearing Late-Cycle Bear Phase?
Not all analysts, however, share that bearish view of Bitcoin. Technical analyst Michael van de Poppe offers a different view suggested that gold’s recent strength may be nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for the currency to turn back to Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe highlighted Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) against gold on a weekly basis, noting that it has reached an all-time low.
In his assessment, this suggests a sharp imbalance in valuation, with one asset appearing to be overextended in the short term while the other is seriously neglected. He described this situation as part of a phase he called the “great cycle phase”. market cycle.
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The analyst also pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score index, a metric used to assess whether a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to its capitalization, adjusted for volatility.
According to van de Poppe, the current Z-Score because Bitcoin is lower than it has been in several key historical periods, including those seen in 2015, 2018, the 2020 COVID-19 crash, and the 2022 bear market low. In his opinion, this indicates that BTC has already entered a bear market phase and may be approaching its final stages.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $83,435, with losses of 2.2% and 7% recorded in 24 hours and seven days, respectively.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
