After hitting 2.6% since the recent decline, Bitcoin (BTC) was trying to turn the $82,000-$83,000 area into support. Some analysts have warned that the cryptocurrency must hold key macro support levels or “will ensure bearish acceleration.”
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Bitcoin Down 76% From Its Peak
On Thursday, Bitcoin crashed alongside the rest of the market, retreating nearly 9% on the day to around $81,314. BTC has been trading between $86,000-$93,500 since early November, closing above the lower boundary of its two-month range during the weekly period despite constant volatility.
Currently, the leading cryptocurrency lost this important support in the daily period and risks a deep correction if the price does not recover the level of $86,000 before the end of the week.
As the price hovers between levels not seen since the end of November correction, a market watcher has warned that the leading cryptocurrency has lost its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support.
Ted Pillows asserted that the last two times Bitcoin closed weekly below the 100-week EMA, back in 2018 and 2022, it dropped 50% in just 4-6 weeks. In addition, he highlighted the historical pattern of BTC, noting that the cryptocurrency repeated the same performance between the cycles of 2017-2018 and 2021-2022.
The chart shows an eight-year rising trend line that has marked highs in previous cycles. The trendline started in late 2017 and continued into the next bull market, marking the top of the 2021 cycle.
Notably, the 2018 bear market correction saw Bitcoin retrace 83.11% from the rising trendline, while the 2022 pullback had BTC down 77.57% from the top of the cycle. According to the chart, this has formed a rising support line that marked where the BTC price dropped during previous bear markets.
Now, Bitcoin looks to be at the top of the trend line again and could return to 76.88% towards the $30,000 mark in 2026, if history repeats itself.
BTC Retests Macro Triangle Below
Analyst Rekt Capital also shared his opinion on the recent reversal of BTC as it has broken down from its weekly price range and is retesting the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation.
The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern on a monthly basis since mid-2024, similar to the 2021 triangle formation that preceded the previous bear market.
By analysis, the crypto-flagship showed a price action that is almost identical to its performance of 2021-2022, with the price respecting the great support and the decline of the resistance.
The collapse from the bottom of the big triangle “will confirm the Bearish Acceleration,” he noted, adding that the continuation of the bull market, the cryptocurrency will need to break and hold above the resistance of a large decline in long periods.
“Until that time, we have another proof that maybe we will be following 2021 [performance]. (…) It’s a little under pressure.”
He also pointed out that BTC is showing the same bull market EMAs that occurred during the beginning of the previous bear market.
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Rekt Capital emphasized that the imminent crossover does not predict further declines, but “effectively confirms the weakness, the kind of response to the weakness that we see and have seen for a while.”
“History suggests that if we continue to make these very low highs, which is the result of reduced demand in historical support areas, then there is more reason to be bearish instead of bullish,” he concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
