The discussion about XRP’s long-term price outlook gathered momentum this week following David Schwartz’s comments. during a Q&A session with members of the XRP community on X. Ripple’s former Chief Technology Officer and one of the original creators of the XRP Ledger weighed in on claims that XRP could realistically reach price levels between $50 and $100.
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Interestingly, Schwartz’s view was not one of direct development but of how markets really believe, probability, and certainty through implicit reality checks.
Schwartz Refuses To Accept Or Spend $100 XRP
When asked that telling investors that XRP cannot realistically reach $50 or $100, Schwartz refused to agree to take that position. Instead, he began by explaining why he was not comfortable making absolute statements about the future price of XRP. Using his personal experience, he revealed that he once considered the lowest levels that are unreasonable, including XRP trading above $ 0.25 and Bitcoin reaching $ 100 as an impossible dream.
However, personal disbelief was not the problem. His argument is based on how rational markets behave when participants genuinely believe in a particular outcome.
According to Schwartz, if a reasonable number of reasonable investors truly believed that there was little chance of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, the market would simply reflect that belief.
In such a scenario, investors will not be willing to sell XRP at prices much below $10, and buyers with that confidence will quickly absorb the available supply. At the time of writing, XRP is trading below $10, and it is however establishing $2 as a place of support. The fact that XRP continues to trade well below that level, in his opinion, shows that very few market participants have actually given the worst chance of a $100 result.
According to Schwartz, cryptocurrency markets are more rational than they are often given credit for. However, he also noted his personal belief that the remarkable crypto bull run was due to unexpected external changes. This warning still leaves open the possibility that XRP will, in fact, trade at $100 in one day.
Comparing XRP and Bitcoin Through a Rational Market Lens
In the next exchange, Schwartz responded to the comparison between XRP reaching $100 and Bitcoin’s early trip to $1,000. The improbability of XRP reaching $100 is more dependent on asset multiples than anything else.
A tenfold increase in XRP, he said, is almost as unlikely as a tenfold increase in Bitcoin or Ethereum right now, regardless of whether that move happened in the past or may happen in the future.
The idea that XRP will one day trade at $100 it has been a popular idea among bullish XRP enthusiasts. However, several critics have been downplaying the idea, pointing out the high cost of this entry and saying that it will the better to target the lower prices like $10 first.
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Schwartz’s words do not mean that $100 XRP is impossible but it follows the thinking of the latter group. Instead, the Ripple emeritus CTO challenges the idea of confidently promoting that target when the market itself shows little willingness to price that outcome today, something that may not be well-satisfied for XRP enthusiasts.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
