Bitcoin Regains Above $76K, But Analysts See Cycle Much Down

Doctor Profit has reviewed the proposed Bitcoin cycle below, and now expects a final drop between $54,000 and $44,000.

Crypto markets experienced another forced selloff in the past 24 hours, pushing Bitcoin (BTC) briefly to $74,000 before rallying above $76,800. The stock is down 13% in the past week.

Market data cited by analysts now suggests a deep bear market and a perceived downward cycle.

Deeper Cycle Lows

Popular crypto analyst Doctor Profit has revised his expectations for the Bitcoin cycle, lowering his forecast to between $54,000 and $44,000.

He explained that the recent decline was accompanied by significant technological advances. Doctor Profit found that Bitcoin lost its 100-week moving average (MA100 Weekly), which he described as a key indicator that separates bull and bear market conditions. He points out that BTC’s break above this same moving average in October 2023 was confirmation of the previous bull market. He argued that losing it again, two years later, and in line with the broader market cycle, points to a bear market reversal.

Dr. Profit also pointed to the appearance of the death cross as further confirmation, and said that this setup is very similar to the market structure seen during the peak cycle of 2021-2022 and the subsequent collapse. He also added that the movement below the MA100 Weekly was sharp and decisive, and it shows a confirmed violation of the bearish flag pattern that he referred to repeatedly in recent weeks.

Looking ahead, the analyst expects Bitcoin to close next week below the MA100 Weekly, enter another consolidation phase, and continue lower towards the 70,000 target, which he believes is not the bottom of the cycle. Although he previously expressed a low in the $50,000-$60,000 range, the view he first shared when Bitcoin was trading between $115,000 and $125,000, he now said that updated models point to even lower levels.

Based on his recalculation, Doctor Profit has placed a new low between $54,000 and $44,000, calling this range the most likely area for the actual cycle bottom. He also flagged the asset’s decline below the Strategy’s average entry price of about $76,000 as an additional source of risk, and argued that the development could reinforce fear and panic in the market.

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A significant portion of Strategy’s Bitcoin was leveraged, and the firm’s stock, used as collateral, has been depleted. This has made stability more difficult for BTC under the firm’s cost base. Doctor Profit also added that the overall Bitcoin Strategy position is now almost flat on a profit-loss basis, while emphasizing that no profit has ever been taken.

He even warned that more fear could be driven by external narratives, including speculation related to the release of Epstein-related files, which he said could drive emotional sales regardless of their merit.

BTC May Need A New Account

Further adding to the bearish outlook, Matrixport’s latest market update sheds light on weak demand from traditional financial investors through Bitcoin ETFs. According to the company, Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive months of net outflows, as US wealth managers recently enabled client access to these products.

It found that the last month of meaningful inflows occurred in July, with a brief resurgence in October, but overall momentum has slowed since the summer. This slowdown continued despite a strong rally in gold and the continuation of the broader dollar neutralization theme. As a result, Matrixport said that BTC may need a new or renewed narrative before strong bottom forms and renewed interest from traditional investors emerge.