XRP Set To Exit? The commentator is flagging the station

The analyst flags XRP’s monthly support at $0.85–$0.95 as a potential “smart money” entry amid the recent 34% decline.

XRP is trading at $1.37, down nearly 15% in the past week and 33% in the last 30 days, as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the Ripple token.

However, the widely followed analyst says the monthly chart shows a long-term bullish channel with support at $0.85–$0.95, an area he believes could mark an entry point for institutional funds that have yet to return to the market.

Monthly Plot Shows Nine Year Support Area

The technical case for a possible postponement depends entirely on the monthly timeframe, according to analyst Arthur, who posted a detailed thread on X earlier Wednesday. His chart tracks XRP from March 2017 to the present, with each candlestick representing a full month of trading. The lower boundary of the ascending channel, which has been repeatedly tested over the course of nine years, now sits at $0.85–$0.95, which is about 30% below current prices.

“This is a monthly structural reading, supported by long-term volume behavior,” Arthur wrote. “The origin of the monthly channel may well represent the place where the ‘smart money’ is coming back.”

He pointed to volume as the missing ingredient. The largest volume spike in the history of XRP occurred between November 2020 and April 2021. According to him, the 2024 rally, which pushed XRP above $2, saw a fourfold volume.

“The real money has not returned,” he said. “What we saw in 2024 were whales and some funds. Not a big institutional outpouring that changes the market forever.”

Derivatives data supports the view that the perceived position has cooled, with analysis from Arab Chain showing that in the last 30 days, open interest in XRP futures has decreased by approximately 1.8 billion XRP on Bybit and 1.6 billion on Binance. Kraken also posted a drop of about 1.5 billion XRP.

This summary suggests that traders are closing out long positions instead of building new ones, a behavior often seen during transitional phases before a new trend emerges.

Macro Backdrop has changed

An analyst’s optimism is not based on chart patterns alone. He mentioned five major developments that distinguish early 2026 from previous cycles, including regulatory clarification following the conclusion of Ripple’s SEC case, the launch and scaling of RLUSD, and the institutional integration of Ripple’s technology.

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Arthur also pointed to the acceleration of the token narrative with what he called the “real institutional infrastructure” that is now in place.

“Technical analysis is always driven by macros,” said a market watcher. “And the macro points up.”

XRP has a history of delivering sharp recoveries from extended declines. For example, during the bear market of 2018, the stock traded near $0.30 for months before collapsing to $1.70 in April 2021. It fell back to around $0.35 in the spring of 2022 and remained pegged until November 2024, when it rose above $2 and later reached an all-time high of $3.65 in July.